Friday's Final Word - #10

UFC London, Maxi in America & Lee McGregor Returns.

Evening all,

The UFC are back in London and despite some early reservations, I am really excited by the card.

As fight week has progressed, little narratives have built around the card and that always helps.

Paul Craig’s new venture at middleweight, the ongoing back and forth between Lerone Murphy & Nathaniel Wood and feel good stories like Mick Parkin making his UFC debut have all helped boost the mood around the card.

Of course, the ticket prices are still drawing negative headlines but the UFC have realised and from what I understand, they are giving tickets away left, right and centre so well done if you bagged a few of them!

Big Tom 2.0?

The intrigue for the main event is all around Tom Aspinall.

‘Big Tom’ is our only realistic hope to hold the UFC heavyweight title and the fact he is returning after a potential career ending injury twelve months ago just adds a bit to the story of this weekend, will we seen Tom Aspinall 2.0?

It is only a year (almost to the day) since Aspinall’s knee gave way in the opening exchanges of his fight with Curtis Blaydes and to be honest, I thought it would be at least 18 months before we seen him again, if ever.

But here we are and this is a good piece of matchmaking because Tybura is a solid heavyweight in his own right.

Side by side, Tom Aspinall is the superior fighter in every department but that doesn’t make Tybura a bad fighter.

Tom said himself during an interview that he knows how durable and tough Tybura is but the proof is in his record.

He has won seven of his last eight, brings decent momentum into the fight and although he has been stopped during his UFC career, he has always shown the character to bounce back.

Despite all the compliments, I expect Tom Aspinall to come through this fight in good fashion but that is because he is one of the most exciting heavyweights on the planet.

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The thing I am excited about most is the evolution of Aspinall.

Obviously, he has to prove he has overcome the injury but in the last year, he has moved away from Team Kaobon and set up camp at home with his father, Andy.

His Dad has always been in his corner but now he takes on the role of head coach and it will be interesting to see the changes that have been made.

It’s common knowledge that the main reason for Aspinall changing camps was the lack of heavyweight sparring and he has invested in bringing in some of the best heavyweight talent from around the world to train alongside him in Wigan (bet they enjoyed that) and that has to have had a positive impact.

If Aspinall was tearing through people without real, consistent heavyweight sparring, he will be a new beast with a full hard sparring camp under his belt.

The winner here will be right in the conversation to fight the winner of Jones vs Miocic so the stakes couldn’t be higher and I think despite all the pressure, Big Tom will take the opportunity with both hands.

I expect a slightly more cautious approach as he tests out the knee but once the fight is in full flow, I think he is too well rounded for Tybura and should get an opportunity to finish the fight inside the first three rounds.

From a ‘picks’ perspective, I would advise just watching this card as there are a few unknowns around the injury.

Main Card Round Up.

Molly McCann takes the co-main event spot and she is looking to bounce back from the humbling defeat to Erin Blanchfield late last year.

For context, I think Blanchfield will hold a UFC belt one day and she is an elite talent so although the defeat will have hurt ‘Meatball’ she has no reason to be down.

She faces a similar style here against Julija Stoliarenko but at a much lower level.

Stoliarenko is a dangerous grappler but her UFC reads 1-5 and that is evidence her all round game is just a bit short to compete in the sports premium promotion.

The one fight that is worth looking at to give an idea of how this one will play out is Stoliarenko vs Chandler which I referenced on this weeks audio episode (See Below).

The Lithuanian was trying to initiate grappling exchanges and once those were shut down, she will quickly lost belief and Chandler took her out.

Since that win, Chandler has gone viral for running away from Norma Dumont mid fight (thats for another day) but it has given Molly McCann a clear blueprint of how to win this fight.

To Stoliarenko’s credit, her previous fights were up at 140lb and she now drops down to 125lb so this weight class may suit her more and let her show more of her skillset but she is now in the position of fighting for her right to stay in the promotion and this looks a tough ask.

I don’t expect Molly to take many risks and I think a clean, dominant performance could help rebuild her confidence and allow her one more push at getting in the flyweight top 15.

These two also shared one of the strangest ‘head to heads’ I have ever seen…

Official Pick: Molly McCann to win by decision.

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The rest of the main card is made up by really competitive fights.

Nathaniel Wood vs Andre Filli stands out as a nice clash of styles.

Wood, who is now campaigning up at featherweight, is a fighter who has always been well thought of but he has just lacked momentum since joining the UFC in 2018.

After 5 years in the UFC, Wood himself would have expected to have made more progress but it seems he has found a home now at featherweight and hopefully that can be the catalyst for his career to take off.

As a Londoner, it will mean a lot for him to be on this card given he lost his place on the last UFC London card in March due to injury.

He was down to face fellow brit Lerone Murphy in March and we know how much of a rivalry has built there so hopefully Wood can come through this to set up a future fight with Lerone.

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Lerone Murphy’s fight on this card is a BANGER against fellow prospect, Joshua Culibao.

This was very close to being my fight to watch because I think it is so evenly matched.

Murphy is like the forgotten man of British MMA.

He has an incredible back story and has been brilliant since getting a shot at the UFC.

He is 4-0-1 in the UFC but in the one draw on his record, he clearly won.

However, just like Nathaniel Wood, he has failed to find any momentum.

He has had bad injuries, a car accident and fights fall through so it isn’t all his fault but he has to find momentum quickly if he is to make a run at the featherweight rankings.

Joshua Culibao arrives in the UK on the back of a win against Melsik Baghdasaryan and that is a good piece of form. His only loss is when he tried to go up a weight class and fight Jalin Turner who is a legit contender at lightweight.

This is the closest fight on the card for me and one that I expect will have a bonus attached but I have to stick with Lerone Murphy to get this done by decision.

Official Pick: Lerone Murphy to win by decision

Another fight which catches the eye is Paul Craig vs Andre Muniz.

This will be Craig’s first fight at middleweight and considering he is ranking at LHW, it is a brave move.

Muniz is ranked at middleweight (#14) and is a very capable fighter with a 5-1 UFC record, his only loss is to Brendan Allen who is quickly becoming a title contender in this division.

This is a matchup between two expert grapplers so I would expect it to hit the mat pretty quickly.

It’s hard to pick a winner as there are questions on both sides but I think there will be opportunities for both men to get a finish and they have proven in the past they can take them.

I am sure a submission victory is coming either way.

I can’t pick a winner but I don’t see it going long.

Official Pick: Paul vs Muniz under 1.5 rounds

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The last fight on the main card worth a mention is Jai Herbet vs Fares Ziam.

This is a decent fight with two fighters with similar records.

They have both shown vulnerabilities when they step up to the next level but I think they are both so similar in ability that this could really gel.

Ziam is nine years younger than Herbert so you would have to say he has more upside but I would like to see Jai win and keep himself in the UFC.

I would love see Jai Herbert vs Paddy Pimblett in an all UK showdown next year so fingers crossed ‘The Black Country Banger’ can add another win to his UFC record.

A Fight To Keep An Eye On

Danny Roberts vs Jonny Parsons.

This fight is chaos.

Both men just don’t know how to take a backwards step and to be honest, researching this was an absolute pleasure.

Danny Roberts is a UFC vet.

Some wins. Some losses.

Knocked people out. Been knocked out.

But whatever the situation, Danny Roberts brings it and is not afraid to stand and bang with anyone.

Jonny Parsons is exactly the same.

He is a product of the contender series and has been thrown in the deep end here against Roberts but he won’t mind.

He is six years younger than Roberts and that age gap is good for Parsons (less miles on the clock) but he missed weight and that could leave him at a disadvantage.

I think Roberts will win but it won’t be straight forward. It never is.

He has the experience edge though and legit power but I expect Parsons to go down swinging.

CARNAGE.

Official Pick: Danny Roberts to win inside the distance.

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One other fighter to keep an eye on is Makhmud Muradov.

He takes on legend Bryan Barberena on the early prelims but I think he might steal a bit of limelight.

He was once managed by Floyd Mayweather and has a lot of hype around him but hasn’t had things all his own way in the UFC.

Barberena, who is a seventeen fight UFC veteran and one of the coolest guys on the roster, is not an easy night for anyone but he is beginning to look vulnerable and I think Muradov can capitalise.

Official Pick: Makhmud Muradov to win inside the distance.

Boxing

This weekend is dominated by MMA but we do have a little bit of Boxing to keep an eye on.

Tonight we have Lee McGregor making his return on Channel 5 against Erik Robles Ayala and it is a fight I expect McGregor to look good in.

The Scotsman is very highly thought of but lacking some momentum (how many times have we said that!?) and needs to keep his name in the hat here.

Opportunities won’t be far away but this is a big opportunity on television and he needs to shine. McGregor did have a bit of a scare on the scales yesterday, stripping right down but I don’t expect that to be a problem.

Ayala is limited but will be tough as all Mexicans are but he does fade late in fights and over twelve rounds, I expect McGregor to break him down and force the stoppage.

Official Pick: Lee McGregor to win by KO/TKO

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Also this weekend, Maxi Hughes travels to the USA to take on George Kambosos Jr and add another amazing chapter to his career.

As we all know, Hughes is enjoying some amazing success towards the back end of his career but this is a huge step up against a very good lightweight.

Kambosos Jr has only been beaten by Devin Haney and I expect him to have too much for Maxi Hughes.

Signing Off…

Thanks for all the great feedback from the first audio episode early this week and as promised, I will be back with an instant reaction to all the fights on Sunday morning.

I will also update on next weeks schedule as we have Inoue vs Fulton on Tuesday, UFC 291 on Saturday and the small matter of Terence Crawford vs Errol Spence Jr.

WOW…

Good luck if you are getting involved with this weekend’s picks and remember to always gamble responsibly.

Have a great time if you are heading to London this weekend and if you are enjoying The Combat Club please remember to share on social media to help us keep growing.

Cheers!