Friday's Final Word - #13
Smith vs Eubank 2 & The UFC return to Paris.
Evening all,
It doesn’t happen often these days but boxing is in the main attraction this weekend as we get ever closer to the rematch between Liam Smith and Chris Eubank Jr.
Rewind eight months and a packed out AO Arena in Manchester witnessed one of the most spectacular knockouts of the year as Smith obliterated Eubank inside four rounds.
We all know after timers, those that claim that they ‘always knew that would happen’ but heading into that first fight, I didn’t see a single person predicting Smith to win by knockout inside four rounds.
I definitely didn’t predict it.
I always had Liam as the favourite (the bookies didn’t) but I based that on his superior fundamentals.
For me, Liam Smith is a better boxer than Chris Eubank Jr and it’s that simple.
Up at middleweight, I had doubts whether he could really dent Eubank Jr. After all, until eight months ago, Eubank Jr had one of the most reliable chins in the game.
But now all those myths are gone.
Smith does have the power.
Eubanks chin isn’t as good as we thought.
But even with that…I don’t see the rematch as a one sided affair.
The general consensus is that Smith wins again in similar fashion but I see it slightly different.
I still have him as favourite and spoiler alert, I still think he wins but I think the fight is closer this time.
The stakes are much higher and with that, I think Smith boxes more cautiously.
He knows he can hurt Eubank Jr. He doesn’t have to prove it again.
He is the better boxer and I expect him to show that.
Liam Smith’s boxing brain is seriously underappreicated. He has a reputation of being someone who marches forward and outlasts people but for me, that’s not true.
He is a thinking fighter from good stock and I expect him to employ those sort of tactics.
The only path to victory for Eubank Jr is to trade.
To catch Liam and make it 1-1 for knockouts.
Liam can’t give him that chance.
Will ‘BoMac’ make a difference?
This has been the big question surrounding fight week and has split opinion.
‘BoMac’ is the trainer of Terence Crawford and he is taking all the plaudits for that and he deserves to but Crawford is a special athlete.
‘BoMac’ has had influence but a lot of Terence Crawford’s success is because he is Terence Crawford, in my opinion.
Just because we have watched that success, I don’t think that automatically means Eubank will be a fighter reborn.
You can’t just create another Crawford. Not in six weeks.
Ultimately, I don’t think they have had enough time together to really build something substantial.
Chris Eubank Jr is always changing his trainer, I have lost count of how many times he has had a new person in his corner and claimed ‘this is the one I will listen to’.
I respect ‘BoMac’ but I don’t think he has any bearing on this fight.
I am really excited for this and think it will live up to the expectation but I do see it as a different fight.
I make Smith favourite and think he will win but it will be closer.
Eubank Jr has to bring something new and because of that, I think Smith will give him respect, especially early.
Smith is the better boxer and I expect that to show but over twelve rounds this time not four.
Official Pick: Liam Smith by decision.
For once…a good undercard!?
Yes, you read that right.
For the first time in what feels like years, we have a solid undercard to enjoy.
In the co-main, Adam Azim takes a decent step up against Aram Faniian.
Azim (8-0 6KO) has a lot of hype and I am a big fan but I would call this an educated matchup.
Faniian is well schooled and game but his weakness is speed, something Azim does not lack.
When these exchange, I expect Azim to have a huge speed advantage and think that will be the difference.
I like Adam Azim and although I am not getting all aboard the hype train (yet) I do want to see him shine this weekend.
No pick here for me but would expect Azim to be too much in the late rounds, especially.
The fight that really catches my eye is Mark Heffron vs Jack Cullen.
As we all know, you don’t get bad fights for the British title and this one has banger written all over it.
They are former sparring partners so I don’t expect there to be any feeling out process and to be honest, I don’t think either man knows how to take a backwards step.
This is the ceiling for both men, anything above this and they get beat as they have shown but there is no shame in that and they matchup so well.
Cullen is as tough as they come but I believe Heffron has the power advantage which I think will be the main difference.
Cullen has been taken out to the body twice and Heffron will know that.
He trains under Joe Gallagher now so I expect him to be armed with a solid game plan and if he lands his shots, I don’t believe Cullen will be able to live with him.
Heffron can be hurt himself and that jeporady makes this one so exciting but I am siding with the champion to retain his belts by KO/TKO.
Official Pick: Mark Heffron by KO/TKO
The People’s Main Event?
One of the big talking points on the card is the return of Dave Allen.
Love it or hate it, Allen is a likeable character and there is a reason he has been put on this PPV card as an opponent for Fraser Clarke.
He brings eyeballs.
Yes, he has retired 10 times already but Allen is a name and that’s exactly what Fraser Clarke needs right now.
Through seven fights, the professional career of Clarke has been underwhelming.
The matchmaking has been very poor but when he has had opportunities, against the likes of Mariuz Wach, he has failed to capitalise.
Clarke is a fighter that has plenty of pedigree but the lingering question is whether he has stayed amateur too long.
It’s very early to judge but from what we have seen, he doesn’t look like a fighter heading towards world titles.
Allen found his ceiling at around British level and I wouldn’t be surprised if Clarke was in the same boat.
And that’s what makes this fight interesting.
If Allen has any ambition left he can make this really interesting.
Can he win?
It’s a long shot but he can 100% make it competitive and I think he can take it all the way.
Official Pick: Fight to go the distance
The rest of the card isn’t too bad.
Keep an eye on Frankie Stringer. A serious talent coming out the Rotunda. I think he can get the first stoppage of his career this weekend.
Also Marku vs Moran has potential to be a very good scrap.
Marku should have too much, in my opinion.
Now to France…
Unusually, the UFC will take a backwards seat this weekend but they are still putting on a really competitive card.
Last time they went to France it turned out to be one of the cards of the year so let’s hope for more of the same here.
In the main event, home fighter Ciryl Gane finds himself in a situation were he has to prove he is a genuine contender.
Bursting through, people were talking about Gane as a future champion but two humbling defeats to Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones have left a cloud of doubt lingering over him.
Getting beat by those type of fighters is nothing to be ashamed of but it was the manner of defeat that is alarming.
Especially the Jones fight.
Jones is the GOAT but the way he dismantled Gane was almost embarrassing.
And it doesn’t get any easier this weekend.
Sergey Spivak is not Ngannou or Jones.
Never will be.
But his style is a potential nightmare for Gane.
Those two defeats proved his ground game is very, very weak.
Spivak will be employing the exact same tactics which makes this fascinating.
Despite riding a three fight win streak, Spivak was dismantled inside three minutes by Tom Aspinall and that will give Gane confidence because he brings a similar striking style.
The Frenchman will have to weather a storm here no doubt about it but I think his class on the feet can shine through.
It’s a close one and I can make a real case for Spivak but I am riding with Gane.
Official Pick: Gane by KO/TKO
Fight To Keep An Eye On
A bit of a wildcard this week but I am intrigued by Volkan Oezdemir vs Bogdan Guskov at light heavyweight.
You may be expecting a technical analysis for why I am excited about this but I haven’t got anything for you.
I just think this will be chaos.
And sometimes that’s what we want isn’t it?
Oezdemir is the vet. He is up and down these days which makes him vulnerable but when he turns it on he is still dangerous.
Guskov is a newcomer and looks raw but has natural power.
I don’t know who wins but I do know it’s not lasting long.
Official Pick: Under 1.5 rounds
Keep an eye on the UFC debut of Caolan Loughran who takes on Taylor Lapilus.
Loughran is a former cage warriors champion who trains in Liverpool and is very highly fought of.
I expect a big debut from home.
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Thanks again for the support.
The numbers are flying.
Enjoy your weekend!