Friday's Final Word - #15
Joyce vs Zhang Rematch & Fiziev vs Gamrot
Evening all,
No newsletter last week as I needed to get some thoughts together around everything that is going on with boxing at the moment.
To be totally honest, boxing is becoming a very difficult sport to cover, follow or enjoy. MMA has it faults, as does the UFC as the prominent promotion, but everything boxing represents at the moment is hard to support.
I plan to do a longer piece that will be released on Wednesday around boxing and for now it’s a huge part of The Combat Club and my life but it really is pushing me!
Anyway, let’s try to focus on some positives and as always the UFC has a brilliant card and has announced some amazing fights for Q4 of 2023.
Repeat or Revenge?
Just a few weeks on from the Smith/Eubank rematch, we have another fascinating one this weekend between heavyweights Joe Joyce and Zhilei Zhang.
When these two first fought back in April, nobody gave Zhang a chance.
Joyce was fresh off a career best performance against Parker and Zhang had limped through a horrible twelve rounder against Hrgovic.
But on the night, Zhang won in every department.
People have been quick to say Joyce had an off night or started to believe his own hype or underestimated Zhang but for me, he just got beat.
Which is fine. It happens.
But Joyce now has to prove he can adapt. I believe he can but it’s a big job and I am not surprised the bookies can’t split them.
The irony of the defeat in April was Joyce’s biggest strength became his biggest downfall.
I raved like everyone else about Joyce’s chin being indestructible but it seemed like he started to believe it, too.
From minute one, he walked forward, no head movement and just ate shots for fun.
To his credit, his chin stood up.
His eye didn’t.
Those sort of tactics helped him against lower level competition (Dubois) and against small heavyweights like Joe Parker but when you come up against a 19st southpaw.
It’s never going to end well.
The saving grace for Joyce is that he gets the immediate rematch and at 38, he has entered must win territory.
I am not saying he will be forced into retirement with another loss but if he has any ambitions to be a legit world champion, he HAS to win this weekend and that’s what makes it the most intriguing fight of the weekend.
Interestingly, Joyce hit the scales today at a career heaviest (281.2lbs) and that probably tells you his tactics.
He may feel like he couldn’t hurt Zhang in the first fight so expect heavy leather to be traded early doors but he will need to remain switched on defensively.
I don’t think Zhang has ever been given the credit for that first win but I also think Joyce only needs to make subtle changes to turn the result around.
I think Joyce is the better fighter but he can’t disrespect someone like Zhang in the way he did Dubois for example, he will get punished every time.
I think he will be more respectful this time and with that…more dangerous.
Zhang does slow down in the second half of fights and I expect Joyce to try and drag it there before getting a stoppage.
Official Pick: Joe Joyce to win by KO/TKO & Joe Joyce to win in rounds 7-12
Elsewhere…
The undercard in London is embarrassing but there is some decent action in the US.
At the top of the card, unbeaten Richardson Hitchins takes on veteran Jose Zepeda at super lightweight. For me, the verdict is still out on Hitchins and I think this is a dangerous bit of matchmaking.
Zepeda has only lost to good fighters. Most recently, Regis Prograis and I am just not sure Hitchins is at that level yet.
I am not writing Hitchins off and if it goes the distance, he will get the decision but I am not yet convinced. Maybe I will be after this.
The co-main event between Jessica McCaskill and Sandy Ryan is a belter.
Despite being a world champion, Sandy Ryan is taking a massive step up here because she has only had seven professional fights.
McCaskill, on the other hand, is a veteran at this point and only came up short against Chantelle Cameron in her last fight.
I rate Ryan but this may have come too soon.
You can’t buy experience in this game and I think McCaskill will make that pay.
The fighter I am most excited about seeing on the card is Austin ‘Ammo’ Williams.
He takes on well travelled Steve Rolls and I expect him to put on the performance of his career.
Williams, who has long been linked with a fight with Felix Cash, can be difficult to understand as a personality but when he puts it all together in the ring, he is a serious talent.
Rolls has only been beaten by Golovkin and Berlanga, so he would be a great name to add to Williams’ record at this stage.
I do expect ‘Ammo’ to be given some rounds here but for him to ultimately be too good.
Another fighter also features on this card but that is getting no coverage from me.
Fiziev vs Gamrot
The UFC steam train keeps rolling and this weekend is the turn of two seriously talented lightweights who are both looking to stamp their authority on one of the best divisions in the promotion.
Both Rafael Fiziev and Mateusz Gamrot have a genuine chance at holding a world title but in true MMA fashion, they haven’t been kept apart.
As the slight pre-fight favorite, Fiziev is looking to bounce back from his first defeat in the UFC after he come up short earlier this year against Justin Gaethje.
Fiziev was considered a world class talent before that loss and there is no shame in losing to Gaethje.
If he has learned from that defeat, he could be a serious problem for the rest of this division.
As an elite striker, he does hold a big advantage on the feet in this fight but Gamrot proved last time out against Jalin Turner that he has a good enough wrestling base to neutralize strikers.
That’s what makes this so intriguing.
Of course, Gamrot is much more than just a wrestler but he is exceptional in that department and I have no doubt he will be looking to get his hands on Fiziev from the opening bell.
Usually, in these matchups, I would edge towards the wrestle heavy style but I just can’t let myself underestimate the striking ability of Fiziev.
I think this has the ingredients to be an unbelievable fight and I am a huge fan of both men.
I can’t pick a winner but I think it goes long.
Official Pick: Over 4.5 rounds
As always with the UFC, the undercard has some really good fights. The one immediately jumping off the page is at featherweight between Bryce Mitchell and Dan Ige.
Bryce Mitchell is returning from a humbling defeat to Ilia Topuria but it doesn’t seem to have dented his confidence too much.
This week he has claimed to be the biggest draw in the featherweight division and also made one of the funniest appearances I have ever seen on Michael Bisping’s podcast (Link Below)
Mitchell will always divide opinion but he is a very talented athlete and I like this matchup for him.
Obviously, he has a wrestle heavy style and a whole book of submission threats but I think his stand up is improving and despite losing to Topuria, he did land some nice shots of his own and I think that went under the radar.
On the other hand, Dan Ige is a fighter that just struggles for consistency.
He is either brilliant or really poor and at this level, that will always hold you back. He is 3-2 in his last five and I imagine he is more frustrated than anyone with not being able to put together a solid run of wins.
Stylistically, this is striker vs wrestler but I just think Mitchell will have too much.
Ige is a tough nut to crack so I expect it to go all the way but for the judges’ to vote in favour of Bryce Mitchell.
Official Pick: Bryce Mitchell by decision
A Fight To Keep An Eye On
I could have picked a few here and nearly went for Usman vs Collier (I think Usman knocks him out) but I fell on the fight below and this is a bonus guaranteed sort of fight.
When it comes to creative strikers, these two are at the top of the tree. Ramos, in particular, can finish the fight from anywhere and he has multiple ‘spinning elbow’ finishes on his record already.
The problem with Ramos is he often puts himself in danger trying to end fights and while that is noble, it leaves gaps. Charles Jourdain is very good at exploiting gaps and that is why I think this is fight of the night.
I think Jourdain is the right favourite but I couldn’t back either man just because of how mental this could get.
Official Pick: Under 2.5 rounds
It’s a big weekend ahead so as always, please go easy if you are following any of the picks. I speak to a lot of you on social media so know you are an educated crowd but in this game there will always be weeks with winners and losers.
We aren’t trying to get rich quick here. This is fun and an added bonus to what we watch on the weekend.
Please never put yourself in a position where you are losing more than you can afford to lose.
Now the main part…
The Combat Club has got some huge plans but it wouldn’t be possible without the continued support of our brilliant sponsors UPRINT.
UPRINT are a long standing business who provide cost effective printing solutions for businesses. They are a company that I have personal experience with and I can’t recommend them enough.
They are professional, efficient and a market leader in the printing industry.
If you are a business owner and/or decision maker, please get in touch with UPrint and let them save you both time and money.
Website: www.u-print.org
Contact: raymond.mcdonald@u-print.org
Please quote The Combat Club when reaching out.