Friday's Final Word - #16
Canelo vs Charlo | Opetaia in the UK & Cage Warriors in the spotlight.
Evening all
Firstly, I had a few conversations on social media this week about why the newsletter didn’t come out on Wednesday.
In the end, I decided against publishing what I wrote.
It took me a long time, it was detailed and had some strong opinions but it was (as you expect) so negative towards boxing.
I know the sport probably deserves it but I felt like I was getting dragged in.
Maybe one day I will release it but for now let’s try to be positive…if we can!
Also congratulations to those that won on the picks last week, I always enjoy seeing the screenshots on a Sunday morning!!
In typical fashion, the first guy I have to write about this week is another one that has had a ‘run in’ with drug testing agencies.
The majority of the boxing world conveniently forget that Canelo failed a test and to his credit, he has taken full advantage and placed himself right at the top of the sport.
I tend to try not get too involved in Canelo hype but this fight against Jermell Charlo is one that really interests me.
At 33 and with 60+ professional bouts under his belt, it’s no surprise that Canelo isn’t as sharp as he once was but this is clever matchmaking.
Jermell Charlo is a quality operator but an unpredictable character.
He has all the skills in the world and for a long time has dominated 154 but people forget he is also 33.
That’s not me saying he is finished but for the skills he has, he should have achieved much more.
Now he finds himself in the biggest fight of his career but he is moving up two weight divisions and hasn’t fought since May 2022.
The size thing isn’t a huge issue.
As you can see below, there isn’t a great deal between them physically.
But you can’t roll into a fight at this level without having momentum.
It makes everything harder.
Coming into this fight, you could argue Canelo is not in the best form.
Loss to Bivol.
Underwhelming against both Ryder and GGG.
But he is still fighting.
Still going through camps and coming out the other side.
None of us truly know what Charlo has been doing for the last year but it’s not been competing.
That’s a problem.
Just the one Charlo…
The biggest news during fight week has been the fact Jermall Charlo hasn’t been present.
Despite being twins, the two Charlo brothers are notorious for falling out and it seems another family feud has split them up in the build up here.
Although it’s never nice to see, I think Jermell being isolated from his brother this week is a positive.
When they are together, chaos is never far away and with a challenge like this in front of him, Jermell needs all the focus he can get and standing on his own two feet without the usual entourage, could help him.
In terms of a prediction, I think Canelo comes out of this one with a victory.
Those that have listened or read my stuff for a while will know I am not a fan of Canelo and his past drug failures but I think he is too experienced to slip up this weekend.
If we were looking at an active Charlo, I may have a different opinion but I just don’t believe he has had enough solid preperation to turn in up in Las Vegas and beat Canelo Alvarez.
I expect it to be competitive but the momentum will swing Canelo’s way in the second half of fight.
Official Pick: Canelo to win by decision
Opetaia in the UK
It’s not just Vegas that has fights this weekend as we have two shows in the UK to keep an eye out for.
The biggest being newly crowned IBF cruiserweight champion Jai Opetaia defending his belt for the first time against Jordan Thompson in London.
Opetaia claimed his seat at the top table with an impressive victory over Mairis Briedis last year and is now widely regarded as the #1 cruiserweight in the world.
Like we mentioned earlier with Charlo, the new champion has been inactive (no fight since he won the belt in July 2022) but he has been matched accordingly and ‘ring rust’ shouldn’t be a factor here.
As far as first defence goes, this is respectable.
Jordan Thompson is undefeated (15-0 12KO) and has worked his way through the IBF rankings since being signed to Eddie Hearn.
As a fighter, Thompson is raw but he punches hard and he will keep Opetaia honest for as long as this lasts.
Opetaia is the big favourite but he won’t be able to just coast here and he will be eager to start off his cruiserweight reign with a big knockout.
Breaking the fight down, I make Opetaia a huge favourite and I was not surprised to see him as a 1/6 favourite with the bookies.
It’s not that I don’t respect Thompson’s skillset, I just think he hasn’t had the experience yet to make a jump to this sort of level.
Last time out, he done well to stop Luke Watkins but he was caught with certain shots in that fight that he can’t afford to be caught with in this fight.
Also if you watch the fight below with Vasil Ducar (who is also on this card) you can see the holes in Thompson’s game and I just don’t think he has had enough time to make the adjustments that are needed at world level.
The fight itself he controlled but as you will see in round 10, he ate some huge shots and was almost stopped by someone who is many levels below Jai Opetaia.
I have now doubt Jordan Thompson will go on to be a decent operator but this is too soon.
Official Pick: Under 9.5 rounds.
***(small stakes on Jai Opetaia to win in rounds 1-4)***
I haven’t covered the undercard here because it’s so poor.
The one small interest fight is Cheavon Clarke vs Vasil Ducar which has the potential to be ok but the rest of it isn’t worth covering.
Another step closer for Dubois?
Over on Sky Sports, undefeated prospect Caroline Dubois is looking to take a step closer to a legimate world title as she takes on Magali Rodriguez (22-6-4).
Yes, I know this is for the IBO title but we aren’t classing that as legit.
Dubois has done everything asked of her since turning professional in 2022 and despite only being 7-0, she is being mentioned for some big fights in the near future.
I respect how highly Shane McGuigan talks about her and I think he is someone worth listening too but I am not 100% sold just yet.
I think the matchmaking has been very clever with Dubois and it reminds me a lot of how her brother Daniel’s early career was handled.
I am excited to see her development and I hope she can reach world level but I think it’s too early to make major predictions, just yet.
I do expect her to come through this particular fight but wouldn’t be surprised if it went the distance to give her some valuable experience.
Official Pick: Caroline Dubois by decision.
FIGHT TO KEEP AN EYE ON
Viddal Riley vs Nathan Quarless.
This cruiserweight fight is for the English title and has flown under the radar slightly.
I think Riley is a decent operator and he could have taken much easier routes through ‘MisFits’ boxing but he has remained true to the game and is focused on becoming a legitimate champion.
When you consider the current state of the sport and how easy it is to make quick money as a celebrity he deserves respect.
He has looked good as well and with a record of 9-0 (6KO) he can clearly punch a bit.
This is his toughest test to date, however.
Nathan Quarless is from Liverpool and someone who’s career I have kept a close eye on.
At 12-0, he has built solid experience on the small hall scene and although he hasn’t registered a knockout, he is a fighter that is improving all the time.
I think people will be looking at this on paper and thinking Quarless has no chance because he won’t be able to hurt Riley but I believe he has the skillset to make this competitive, at the very least.
Riley is the deserved favourite but Quarless can box and I think they both deserve massive respect for taking this.
Official Pick: Over 4.5 rounds
MMA
We have no UFC card this weekend but there is a decent offering from both the PFL and Cage Warriors.
I like the look of the PFL card but it’s the Cage Warriors card that catches my eye.
It has a lot of local interest for me and some fighters on there that I think we will see on a UFC card in the near future.
This goes down tonight (Friday) so don’t miss it and keep an eye out for Luke Riley.
He fights out of NXTGEN in Liverpool and is a fighter I think can make some noise over the next few years.
Rounding off
As always, I will be back next week and I really appreciate the ongoing support.
Numbers are growing every week and plenty of you have signed up to be a paid member which is humbling and such a big help.
Those of you on the paid side, some announcements will be coming soon.
Before I leave, just a quick word for our amazing sponsors UPRINT.
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SEE YOU ALL NEXT WEEK!