Friday's Final Word - #17
Wood vs Warrington & UFC is back.
Evening all,
Well done to everyone last week who managed to win a bit of money off the picks!
We have been unlucky in recent weeks but to get a ‘full house’ was brilliant.
I had a plenty screenshots sent to me on Sunday morning which is always great to see and the subscription numbers shot up (usually do when we win…) so thanks to everyone who got involved and for those of you that keep spreading the word!
Wood vs Warrington
For the first time in a long time, we have a home card this weekend that I am excited about.
It has felt like all the major promoters have abandoned decent UK cards over the last year or so and although this card is nothing to get carried away about, it is certainly a step in the right direction.
For a start, the main event is an intriguing one that is difficult to call.
A few years ago, Josh Warrington was operating on a totally different level to Wood but the tables have turned and Leigh Wood is the man who will walk to the ring as champion and favourite.
Wood is the known puncher but he proved last time out that he can box to a plan when required and to be honest, I have never been as impressed by him as I was last time.
I didn’t give him much of a chance against Lara, especially after being knocked out in the first fight, but he proved he can keep a cool head in a hot kitchen and if we see that version of Leigh Wood again, he will be a very difficult man to beat.
Warrington is put in a box as this relentless front foot fighter who hasn’t got much power but I don’t subscribe to that.
You don’t become a two time world champion and hold wins over the likes of Carl Frampton, Kiko Martinez and Lee Selby if you can’t punch or box.
Simply put, I don’t see this as boxer vs puncher.
I see this as two fighters who adapt to what it’s front of them and that what makes it so exciting.
I don’t see much in either skillset that separates them but one thing that does catch my eye is form and activity.
Leigh Wood is 4-1 in his last five with three of those wins coming inside the distance, you have to give him credit.
This will also be his third fight this year and you can’t overstate the importance of being active.
The one loss to Lara was devastating and a brutal knockout but when you consider he came back just twelve weeks later and dissected Lara over twelve rounds, you have to give that win some extra credit.
Add to that stoppage wins over Michael Conlan and Xu Can. There is a real argument we are watching the best version of Leigh Wood possible.
On the other hand, Warrington has won just one of his last four fights and this will be his first fight in ten months.
On the surface, the numbers are damning for Warrington but it’s the inactivity that would worry me more than the actual form.
His two recent losses came to Lara (we all know the danger he brings) and a close decision defeat to Luis Alberto Lopez.
You only have to look at the job Lopez has just done on Michael Conlan to understand how dangerous he is.
Warrington gave him a very competitive twelve round fight and although he will have been disappointed, he can take confidence from a performance like that.
As a two time world champion, Warrington has all the experience needed but being out the ring is a big negative.
Will weight play a factor?
I always keep a close eye on the weigh in and watching earlier today, Leigh Wood looked as bad as I have ever seen him.
It’s known that he struggles to get down to 126lb but he looked particularly drawn on the scales today.
On the other side, Warrington looked brilliant.
He looked full of energy and confidence and it’s hard not to buy into that.
Obviously, tomorrow Wood will be able to refuel and he will be the much bigger man in the ring but if his weight cut was as rough as it looked…he will lose an edge tomorrow.
All things considered, this is a brilliant fight and I would be delighted for either man.
I think Wood is the correct favourite but it’s hard not to be worried about how he looked on the scales.
At the same time, it’s hard not to be worried about Josh Warrington’s inactivity.
We have questions on both side of the table but at the odds, I think Warrington is worth some interest.
He is a proven world class fighter and if he is as fit and motivated as he has been in the past, he could just edge this one and at underdog odds, I am happy to side with him.
Official Pick: Josh Warrington to win.
**one thing to cover and a bonus for those paying maximum attention to the newsletter, I think the draw is overpriced at 14/1. **
A solid undercard!?
Yes, you read that right.
We actually have an undercard worth attention.
Let’s not get carried away, its hardly vintage but we have a few fights worth watching and that is a step in the right direction.
The one that immediately caught my eye was Kieron Conway vs Linus Udofia.
Kieron Conway is a fighter I have always rated and his win over James Metcalf has aged well.
He is a fighter that has always took opportunities from Eddie Hearn, whether hhome or away, and his record reflects that (19-3-1 8KO).
Despite coming up short on away soil against the likes Austin Williams and Souleymane Cissokho he has gained valuable experience and that should serve him well here with his sights being lowered slightly.
I don’t mean any disrespect towards Linus Udofia but he is a fighter that has competed purely at domestic level and doesn’t have the same level of experience as Conway.
The one time Udofia did step up, against Denzel Bentley, he fought with credit but came up short.
Neither of these have huge knockout power but if Kieron Conway is still improving, he should have enough to come through.
Official Pick: Kieron Conway to win.
Elsewhere on the undercard, Hopey Price takes another small step up against undefeated Connor Coghill.
Price is a fighter on the up and as he goes up through the levels, he will continue to shine as more fighters will come towards him and allow him to showcase his slick counter punching style.
I expect him to shine here.
Terri Harper takes on Cecila Braekhus as well but Braekhus isn’t quite the force of old and now in her 40’s, I don’t expect Harper to have much trouble coming through that.
It will be good to watch the continued progress of Junaid Bostan, too.
He is a product of Grant Smith’s gym and with a 6-0 (5KO) record, he is starting to make a bit of noise.
Official Pick: Junaid Bostan vs Corey McCulloch under 3.5 rounds
Dawson vs Green
The UFC is back after a short break (hate those) and the main event is as interesting as ever.
Lightweight contenders Grant Dawson and Bobby Green are both in decent form and come into this one with momentum.
Bobby Green, who continues to surprise despite having 45 recorded fights on his record, submitted Tony Ferguson this year and although he is not known for his submissions, it was hard not to be impressed by that performance.
Obviously, Ferguson is no longer the threat he once was but Green had to deal with him and he did…very impressively.
Grant Dawson is ranked at #10 and is steadily making his presence felt at 155lb.
He is undefeated since joining the UFC and there is so much to like about him.
He excels when it hits the mat but his entire game is developing and I think he belongs at the top table in this division.
We all know 155 is a shark tank but I think Dawson is good enough to hang in there.
With Bobby Green, we know his ceiling.
He is a 50/50 guy.
We don’t know Dawson’s ceiling yet but I think its higher than this and he can get this done submission.
Official Pick: Grant Dawson by submission
This isn’t a card with a lot of superstars on but its full of really good matchups.
On the main card, Alex Morono vs Joaquin Buckley has potential.
These two both struggle to get any momentum going but they have been matched together and its a very interesting matchup.
Morono is coming off a decent win against Tim Means and Buckley is also high in confidence after an impressive stoppage of Andre Fialho.
Morono is solid but the upside looks to be with Buckley.
He might never have title credentials but he can be competitive and this looks a good opportunity to get some much needed momentum in his career.
Official Pick: Joaquin Buckley to win by KO/TKO.
The name value on the card is Drew Dober.
A UFC vet now, he has been spoken about as a potential opponent for Paddy Pimblett but he finds himself on a recovery mission after being knocked out cold by Matt Frevola.
Dober is a fighter that has depended on his chin too much and that got exposed last time but it’s still too early to write him off.
He is one of the most likeable guys on the roster and being matched with Ricky Glenn gives him a perfect opportunity to bounce back.
Glenn is solid but his 4-4 UFC record shows that he struggles at this level and I would be surprised if he had an answer for anything Dober brings.
Dober is the favourite, as you would expect, but I think this could be over quite swiftly.
Official Pick: Under 1.5 rounds
Fight To Keep An Eye On
The fight I nearly sided with was Alexander Hernandez vs Bill Algeo on the main card as I think that is about as 50/50 as it gets but I was struggling to confidently pick a winner!
So instead I settled with Joe Pyfer vs Abdul Razak Alhassan.
In this section, I like to highlight fights that I think will ‘over deliver’ (think Hernandez vs Algeo) but also ones were I think we have a future star breaking out and thats exactly how I feel about Joe Pyfer.
People who follow the sport closely will know the story of Pyfer and he is a very likeable character but he can also fight.
His first 2 UFC fights have been electric and I think this is a very smart piece of matchmaking.
Pyfer needs name value to continue growing the brand and when you look at how Alhassan has mixed with, he is the perfect opponent at the perfect time.
This will play out on the feet and that is Pyfer’s world.
His power and slick boxing should come to the fore here and I expect him to win in style and pick up a bonus along the way.
No official pick here but watch and enjoy!!
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