Friday's Final Word - #2
Fury vs Paul, Benn Turns Heel & Krylov vs Spann.
Evening all & welcome to Friday’s Final Word!
Some week that, wasn’t it?
The whole egg situation with Conor Benn is developing day by day and I still can’t believe they have used this excuse, but they are doubling down and Benn looks like he may embrace the ‘heel’ role in British boxing.
First to the public..
Then to confronting fellow fighters on Twitter…
From a media darling to heel.
It’s certainly a change in pace!
Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury
I can’t believe I am typing this but the biggest fight of the weekend goes down in Saudi Arabia and involves two guys better known for being celebrities.
The fact Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury is this big is amazing but if I said a few years ago that Jake Paul would be the betting favourite, nobody would have believed me.
The build up has been huge for this fight but when you strip it back, it remains two novice professional boxers going at it.
Neither of them have done ANYTHING in professional boxing and although they have attention from a worldwide audience, they don’t have world class talent.
I expect this fight to go long and I have given a in depth preview in my Star Sports article here [Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury Preview] and I would be amazed if either of these won by knockout.
Despite the size and the sh*t talk, neither of these have got finishing ability in a boxing ring. Anderson Silva, at 47 years old, exposed Jake Paul for what he is and had to take a suspect fall in the final round to convince everyone that Jake won.
Tommy Fury, on the other hand, has registered knockouts early in his career but as soon as he fought anyone who has won a fight, he went the distance.
I don’t actually think Tommy Fury is a lost cause, see Shane McGuigan talk about him below, but I think he is so focused on being famous that he neglects the actual hard yards it takes to become a well respected boxer.
Ultimately, when two raw novices meet, fights usually start incredibly quick but fade very quickly and that is exactly what will happen here, in my opinon.
I don’t really care who wins but I think whoever does it will be by decision.
Official pick: Fight to go the distance.
Elsewhere…
On the undercard, two genuine boxers clash in the shape of Ilunga Makabu and Badou Jack with the WBC cruiserweight title on the line.
If you are to believe some journalists, the winner of this is a future Jake Paul opponent and it honestly wouldn’t surprise me.
They are both faded forces who have had some lucky decisions go their way in recent years, especially Badou Jack last time out but I think the vulnerabilities they now have may make for an entertaining fight.
Either fighter can win but they wont hold this WBC title for much longer.
I expect this to be a sloppy fight but think the under 10.5 price of (6/4) looks quite interesting.
No official pick from me on this one.
There is a good fight going down in Minneapolis this weekend for the IBF super lightweight title between Jeremias Ponce and Subriel Matias.
This is not a fight that is going to get mainstream attention but it is a decent scrap that I am really interested in.
You may remember Ponce after he came to the UK and beat Lewis Ritson a few years ago and he has done absolutely nothing wrong since then.
Subriel Matias is a very dangerous opponent, though. He is 18-1 (18KO) and obviously packs a serious punch.
He is waiting for a real breakout moment but I think this may be it.
Ponce is a very good fighter but he does get hit clean and I think if he does against Matias, he will pay the ultimate price.
This is a great fight and one the hardcore fans are getting really excited about but it just doesn’t have much hype because these aren’t showmen.
They are pure fighters.
I expect a war of attrition but think the power of Matias may just be too much in the end.
Official Pick: Subriel Matias between rounds 7-12
MMA
It’s another slow week in MMA before we explode with UFC 285 next weekend but there is still a little bit to get excited about.
Bellator are holding a card in Dublin but with Logan Storley in the main event, I am not sure it will be worth staying up for.
Storley is coming off a win against Michael Page but his style is not exactly fan friendly.
Hardcores will watch but if you are reading this as a bit of a causal MMA fan, give this one a pass!
The UFC return to the apex for a decent light heavyweight fight between Nikita Kyrlov and Ryan Spann.
I actually like this fight but these shows at the Apex are starting to really annoy me.
It’s an impressive facility in Las Vegas but it is absolutely soulless and I just think fights like this deserves to be played out in front of fans.
It was amazing that the UFC kept the train rolling throughout the pandemic but the Apex has served its purpose.
If anyone from the UFC ever reads this;
GET THE SHOW BACK ON THE ROAD!!
The actual main event itself is decent.
For anyone who has listened to me for a while, I think Krylov can mix it with the best at light heavyweight but he is just missing something.
I can’t quite put my finger on it, but he is just struggling to make that extra step.
In his last fight against Volkan Oezdemir, he faded quite heavily so I do have doubts about his ability to compete in a five round main event.
As for Ryan Spann, he has just become a gatekeeper in this division.
He is matched with all the fighters that the UFC are undecided on and if he beats them, they get forgotten about but if they beat Spann, they are considered a contender.
He is riding a decent two fight win streak but again, you don’t know which version of Spann will turn up and that would put me off backing him to win.
I don’t actually know how this one goes but I do favour Krylov by process of elimination. He is a very good fighter and hopefully we see him go to the next level this weekend.
Fight to keep an eye on
As always, I like to flag up a fight to keep an eye on each week and this is quickly becoming one of my favourite parts of this newsletter!
This week we have two flyweights clashing in the UFC and I think it could be a bit of a BANGER.
Charles Johnson vs Ode Osbourne
Johnson is a former opponent of our own Mo Mokaev and although he lost that fight, he has registered two decent wins since.
He was a champion in LFA and I think with a bit of momentum, he could really make a move in this flyweight division.
Ode Osbourne is a solid contender but he tends to come up short at this sort of level.
He is also a fighter that can be stopped and its that vulnerability that I think makes this a good fight.
Johnson will look for the stoppage and Osbourne isn’t afraid to fight fire with fire.
This is stashed away on the prelims but I think it could steal some limelight.
Official Pick: Charles Johnson by KO/TKO/Sub.
Signing out
So that is it for this week and I am already looking forward to huge fights next weekend.
You will see this week I have provided some official picks and I will be tracking these going forward.
Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury to go the distance
Suriel Matias to win in rounds 7-12
Charles Johnson to win by KO/TKO/SUB
In Wednesday’s newsletter next week, I will share a google doc link that will show you, in real time, all of our picks going forward and will have advice on unit stakes so please look out for that.
I hope you have all enjoyed the content this week and please keep sharing, the numbers are flying up and I have got some big plans for the next month or so!
See you all on Monday!!