Friday's Final Word - #20
Cordina in Monaco and the UFC returns to Brazil...
Evening all!
It’s good to be back…
As many pointed out to me on social media, the newsletter was missed last week but with no UFC, I couldn’t bring myself to get involved with that circus in Saudi Arabia so had to sit out!
But we are back now and we have plenty to get stuck into this weekend.
UFC IS BACK IN BRAZIL
For this first time since the pandemic, the UFC will roll into Sao Paulo and there is a potential future heavyweight champion headlining the card!
I have been so impressed by Jailton Almeida in the UFC and I see him as right there with Tom Aspinall and Sergey Pavlovich as the new generation begin to takeover the heavyweight rankings.
With a 5-0 UFC record, it’s hard to pick any holes in what Almeida has done so far and a quick glance into his extensive grappling background will show you that this success is no accident.
Almeida hsa been competing for years and years and rounding out his game so that he was prepared for this sort of level.
He is getting a lot of credit for breezing through the likes of Jairzhinho Rozenstruik but I think it’s all been in first and second gear.
Obviously, the ground game is his strength.
The minute he gets anyone to the mat, that is his world.
He has got so many submissions that opponents will immediately panic but don’t sleep on the hands…
Almeida can whack.
He is a genuine dual threat heavyweight and it’s going to take someone special to stop him.
In steps Derrick Lewis.
Everyone’s favourite heavyweight.
It’s hard not to love Lewis.
He is funny and he is a dangerous heavyweight on his day but the problem for him is that those days have been few and far between in recent years.
For every dominant performance like the one against De Lima, we have a limp performance like the one against Spivac.
With a UFC record of 18-9, Lewis is now in gatekeeper territory and I think that is the role he will play this weekend.
Obviously, he holds the record for the most knockouts in UFC history so he is a dangerous man but if he doesn’t land early, he is in real trouble with a fighter like Almeida.
With this version of Almeida stood across the octagon, I struggle to make a case for Lewis this weekend.
It’s only going to take one misplaced swing and Almeida will have him on his back and on the other hand, if he is too patient and hesitant, Almeida will stalk him and take him out.
Official Pick: Jailton Almeida to win by submission
THE SUPPORT CAST
The main talking point about the prelims all week was return of the Bonfim brothers but that was thrown up in the air earlier today.
Gabriel and Ismael Bonfim are both making big noise in the UFC and had a chance to put a show on in front of their home crowd this weekend but Ismael missed weight earlier by a huge 3.5lbs so he is off the card and Gabriel is left to carry the name!
Gabriel, who is 15-0, takes the co-main event spot and looks to be the one out of the brothers that could make a real run at a title so it is perhaps fitting that he will get the full spotlight this weekend.
With a perfect record and all of his wins coming by stoppage, it’s easy to see why so many people are getting excited by Gabriel Bonfim and his first two UFC performances have been electrifying.
In typical UFC fashion, they want to test his credentials early in his career so they have matched him against Nicholas Dalby.
A man who has never been stopped.
Dalby hasn’t and won’t ever be champion but he is insanely tough and this is a real step up for Gabriel Bonfim.
I believe he is up to it but I do think he will need to show us something new this weekend if he is to keep progressing.
The chances are Bonfim get’s the finish but keep an eye on the over/under markets. I think Dalby can take him into the later part of this fight.
Not pick but got a keen eye on this one.
Without the second Bonfim brother stealing headlines, their is a real opportunity for some fighters to make a name for themselves this weekend.
One fight that catches the eye is Rodolfo Vieira vs Armen Petrosyan.
Vieira is a ju-jitsu wizard and the home crowd will be roaring him on but Petroysan, for me, is a fighter that is making quiet progress in this stacked middleweight division.
Petrosyan beat Chris Leroy Duncan as an underdog last time out and he will take a similar role this weekend but it’s one I think he thrives in.
Petrosyan holds all the advantages on the feet here so if he can stop the takedowns, he has a real chance to add another big name to his record this weekend.
Obviously, stopping a force like Vieira is easier said than done but it isn’t impossible.
I think this is a great fight but I am siding with the away corner!
Official Pick: Armen Petrosyan to win.
Caio Borralho and Abus Magomedov was close to being the fight to watch this week.
Two middleweights who have been talked up but have yet to really live up to the hype but I like that they have been matched against each other.
Borralho deserves a bit of credit, he is on a nice run of wins but Magomedov came in to the UFC with a huge reputation.
He was matched with Sean Strickland in just his second fight which demonstrates how highly thought of he was but he was exposed pretty bad in that fight.
Now Strickland has gone on to become the champ, Magomedov may take some confidence from it but he needs too.
His UFC career could be riding on this weekend and I expect him to come out swinging.
His gas tank drained quicly in that Strickland fight but there is no denying this is a big step down in competition which I think will suit him.
Borralho will also fancy the job and I don’t think he will be taking a backwards step.
Official Pick: Under 2.5 rounds
A FIGHT TO KEEP AN EYE ON…
Rinat Fakhretdinov vs Elizeu Zaleski.
I have to admit, I had never given Zaleski much of a look until this week.
A quick glance at his record tells you that he is a decent UFC vet. He has decent wins against Sean Strickland and Benoit St Denis and the fact the UFC have matched him with Rinat shows that they are either confident in him….or want rid of him.
Fakhretdinov has been a revelation since joining the UFC and his 55 second win over Kevin Lee was the viral moment he has needed.
I find it strange they are sending him to Brazil to take on a Brazilian but I think he will shine under the pressure.
The reason this is the one to watch this week is because while I think Fakhretdinov will win, I know Zaleski will meet fire with fire in front of his home crowd.
There is a bonus coming here…one way or another.
Official Pick: Under 2.5 rounds (strongest pick on the card)
BRITISH INTEREST…
Deep on the early prelims, we have two local fighters making an apperance.
First up, veteran Mark Diakiese takes on local Kaue Fernandes who is making his UFC debut.
Diakiese has put in the hard roads in his UFC career but he is 7-7 now and this looks another uphill task.
From the tape, Fernandes looks well rounded and although this is a huge step up, there is a reason to believe he can be a decent UFC asset.
I feel like this is just a case of timing. Fernandes is climbing the tree, Diakiese is unfortunately on the way down.
I am surprised the local is underdog.
Official Pick: Fernandes to win.
No pick in the second fight featuring a brit but I think it could be another difficult matchup.
Modestas Bukauskas has been good since rejoining the promotion (he was cut in 2021) but he is coming up against a sharp shooter here in Vitor Petrino.
At 26, he is getting better all the time and I see him as the figher with the upside here.
No pick because Modestas is no joke, he can win if Petrino isn’t as good as we think but I side with the home fighter.
CORDINA IN MONACO
Matchroom make there annual trip to Monaco and the card is a little disappointing but it’s good to see Joe Cordina back before the year is out.
Cordina is a brilliant talent. There is no denying that but we need the big fights soon if he is to really reach his full potential.
This weekend he takes on Edward Vazquez and for me, it feels like a little step back.
As IBF champion, I was hoping he was going to build on a brilliant win against Rakhimov but for whatever reason it hasn’t happened.
Watching some footage this week of Vazquez made me even more convinced that this is a easy enough fight for Cordina.
Some well respected minds in the USA are saying Vazquez can come and cause an upset here but I just don’t see it.
In fact, I think Cordina stops him.
This is the first time Vazquez will have fought at 130lbs and it is also his first scheduled twelve rounder.
Everything on paper suggest he is out of his depth.
Cordina has to come through in style and this has to be the last fight before something huge in 2024.
Official Pick: Joe Cordina to win by KO/TKO
There are four fights on the undercard and to be honest, it’s pretty dreadful.
Souleymane Cissokho vs Isaias Lucero isn’t bad. They are both talented but I expect that one to go long.
The talking point on the card is Ramla Ali as she rematches Julissa Guzman after being knocked out cold a few months ago in the first fight.
Ali is a figher with a big reputation and a lot of hype around her but that was a bad knockout so it will be interesting to see how she rebuilds after that.
Rewatching the first fight, she was actually boxing well but then traded for no reason and got knocked clean out.
She can’t make them mistakes again.
I don’t think she will and I don’t think she would be the underdog either!
OVER AND OUT
Massive show coming next week and I really appreciate all the continued support.
The plans in place for the next few months are huge so can’t wait to show you all what I am working on.
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