Fridays' Final Word - #21
It's all about New York!!!!
Evening all,
Not much time for the pleasantries today as we have a massive UFC card to preview and a massive moment for British MMA as Tom Aspinall looks to become our first ever heavyweight champion.
If you are here for boxing this week…I am sorry to disappoint you we are discussing UFC 295 and UFC 295 only!!
The Co Main Event or The Real Main Event?
With all due respect to both Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira they are main event by position only this weekend.
I know the die hards reading this will be cursing me but it’s true.
That fight is so interesting (we will get to that later) but the fact two of the most exciting heavyweights on the planet are matched up on the same card means they have lost some of the limelight.
With Jon Jones now injured and potentially retired and Stipe Miocic only interested in fighting Jones, it’s time for the heavyweight division to start fresh and these two are the men that are at the front of the queue.
They are both relatively fresh in the UFC and have identical 6-1 records but there ability has meant that fast tracking to the top of the division was the only option but they are BOTH good enough to lead the sport’s premium division and the beauty of this weekend is it probably won’t be the last time we see these two fight.
Let’s Look Deeper…
This fight was thrown together on 17 days notice but this is a fight both men KNEW was happening.
Now, neither of them were predicting it would come this soon but the UFC had told both of them that they would be matched in the early part of 2024 so I am sure they, and their respective teams, have been doing a lot of digging in recent months.
By time that opening bell goes in the early hours of Sunday morning (UK Time), I believe both of these men will be as prepared as they ever could be…mentally.
The most important part of the sentence was the world mentally.
They are both laser focused but who is in the best shape physically?
I think Sergey Pavlovich wins that battle.
The Russian was already pencilled in to be the back-up fighter for the original main event so he would have been training at a more intense pace than Tom for the last 2-3 months.
Tom come in at a record high of 265lb (and some change) which shouldn’t be a surprise but Aspinall is a consummate professional so I don’t expect that too impact him too much.
But in a game of small margins?
It could be advantage Pavlovich when it comes to the physical battle.
But if you are reading this as a big Tom Aspinall fan (me…) don’t worry too much.
Pavlovich may have been training more intensely in recent months but I think Tom has been preparing for this moment his entire life.
That may sound cheesy to some…but hear me out.
Tom was moulded into a combat athlete from a very, very early age.
From as young as 8, he was learning martial arts alongside his father Andy, who in his own words, quit his job when he was 12 because he knew he had to focus on Tom and his ability.
Because of this grounding that Tom has had in the sport, he holds a fight IQ advantage over pretty much the entire heavyweight roster.
When it comes to the thinking aspect of the sport. Tom is elite.
When it comes to blending all the martial arts together. Tom is elite.
When it comes to variety. Tom is elite.
Fundamentally, Tom is an elite fighter.
Pavlovich isn’t so bad himself but from everything we have seen so far on the tape…he isn’t as complete a martial artist as Tom Aspinall.
Advantage Tom?
That is the beauty of this fight.
You can come to so many conclusions and make a case for both men.
Ultimately, I think these are the two best heavyweights on the planet today.
We are lucky they are facing off early but when it’s all put down on paper…very little separates them.
Even down to their record.
They both stand at 6-1.
Aspinall’s sole defeat being that freak injury against Blaydes.
Pavlovich only defeat came in his debut.
Against a known drug cheat.
Make of that what you will.
Since that defeat, the Russian has ironed everyone out inside a round.
Since Tom returned, he has looked better than ever.
Oh, and he hasn’t ever been into the 3rd round as a UFC fighter.
They are both brutal finishers who will be looking to close this out straight away so wherever you are watching this one…don’t blink.
Who Wins?
This is a fight that can literally end in the blink of an eye but I think Tom Aspinall has too many tools in his locker to lose.
Make no mistake, if he is not fit enough or sharp enough, he will pay a serious price but I think his skillset is just too much.
I don’t think there is a heavyweight on the planet who mixes it all together as good as Tom and after 22 years of hard work…Saturday will be his crowning moment.
Official Pick: Tom Aspinall to win.
The ‘Official’ Main Event
As I mentioned earlier, I mean no disrespect to either fighter when I say this fight is somewhat overshadowed because it really is a brilliant matchup.
Before his injury, I was on record saying how good I thought Jiri Prochazka was.
Winning a belt inside three fights is no joke and the manner in which he done it was incredible.
Beating the likes of Volkan Oezdemir and Dominick Reyes is respectable but it was they way he won against Glover Teixeira that stood out.
Although that is looked on as his worst performance because of how close he was to losing…it was the fact he found a way to win against all odds that impressed me most.
In the UFC, everybody is good.
They can all find a finish.
But what Prochazka proved in that fight was that he can do it on a bad day.
Even at his worst, he can find a way to win.
On the back of that performance, we were all hoping he would go on to have a dominant run as light heavyweight champion but that wasn’t to be.
The shoulder injury he sustained almost forced him to retire and he did the noble thing of vacating the belt and allowing the division to move on.
But now he is back.
And he tells us…better than ever.
I actually believe him.
18 months of not competing is a long time but I think Jiri is a special character.
A one of one type of athlete.
I thin he is back to take over this division, but he really couldn’t be coming back to a more dangerous opponent if he tried.
Alex Pereira for me is the epitome of a bogeyman.
He has got such a decorated career across multi disciplines (recently inducted into the Glory Kickboxing Hall of Fame) and he strikes immediate fear into almost anyone.
To do what he has done in the UFC is crazy.
Inside six fights, he is bidding to become a two weight world champion and this will the fourth world champion he will have faced.
Pereira has truly gone in at the deep end with MMA and ok, he was knocked out cold by Adesanya in the rematch but that doesn’t define him or his legacy.
Pereira has proven time and time again that he revels in adversity.
He knows how to rebuild.
After that loss, he has moved up a weight division and I think that is a stroke of genius.
He was struggling to make the middleweight limit, anyone with a set of eyes could work that out but I expect him to be a whole different animal at light heavyweight.
The problem for Pereira is that he may be bumping into someone here who is just too developed.
Jiri is the type of man that dedicates his life to this sport.
He is ever developing and I think the 18 months will have actually done him good.
This is as close to a 50/50 as you will get but I think Jiri edges it.
He is too complete…too dangerous and maybe just too fresh.
Official Pick: Jiri Prochazka to win.
The Fight To Keep An Eye On
No prizes for guessing which fights wins this weekend…
This matchup between Matt Frevola and Benois St Denis is just beautiful carnage.
They are also both my kryptonite.
I can’t tell you how many times I backed against both of these fighters and they have just taken my money by winning.
The reason I back against them is because they have such gaping holes in their game.
But that’s what makes this unmissable.
Frevola, in particular, looks very beatable on tape but the reality is usually different.
He is the type of fighter that will trade with his chin hanging in the air but somehow manages to come off best!
That said, he has been stopped twice in the first round during his UFC tenure, but please don’t under estimate him on that.
Trust me…he will prove you wrong.
For all the losses and the sometimes crude style, wins over the likes of Drew Dober and Jalin Turner need to be respected.
The ‘Steam Rolla’ isn’t everyones cup of tea…but he is effective and if he keeps winning he is on the edge of a big fight.
On the other side, St Denis is a fighter that has done nothing but improve.
After losing his debut, he has gone on a tear.
Four stoppages in a row mean he is a real player at lightweight now and his game is evolving at a serious rate.
Like Frevola, he will take a shot to land one but he also got a very effective ground game and we may see more of that this weekend.
The Frenchman is the favourite and that is right in my eyes, but I have got Matt Frevola wrong before.
No pick here for me but this one is getting a bonus!
Other On The Card
Diego Lopes to win.
Lopes got his chance late notice against Evloev earlier this year and despite losing, he impressed everybody with how close he pushed a top featherweight contender. From there, he earned a UFC contract and a quick finish of Gavin Tucker proved that he is here to stay.
This weekend he takes on Pat Sabatini who is on a nice little run himself but I thin he will struggle to deal with the strength and gas tank of Lopes.
Mark Madsen to win
This is an underdog on the card that I was surprised about. Madsen was an olympic wrestler and he is taking on Jared Gordon who is still rebuilding after that loss to Paddy Pimblett last year.
Assessing these two, I just see so many advantages for Madsen if he plays to his strengths. He does have a tendency to throw the game plan out the window which is a worry but if he uses his wrestling and smart striking here, I think this could be a relatively straight forward night for him.
A word to the sponsors…
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As always, thank you all for the continued support.
Enjoy the fights!
Any combat club this weekend jord before I place my bets 🤣