Friday's Final Word - #23
Conlan/Gill, Ryan Garcia Returns & UFC at the Apex!
Evening all and welcome to the new subscribers!
Numbers have gone up this week and the introduction of the new schedule has been received really well!
Thanks to all those that have switched to become a paid subscriber, it’s appreciated!
I hope you all enjoyed the early picks post and got your bets placed well in advance…
If not…
There is still time (check the email earlier this week)
ONE SMALL APOLOGY…
In the early picks post, I referred to this weekends card being in Dublin.
It’s obviously not.
It’s in Belfast.
Maybe last week’s card is still on mind.
Maybe I’m an idiot!
Will let you decide…but thanks to everyone who flagged it.
Enough of that.
This weekend kicks off a massive December in combat sports and the card in Dublin is very, very exciting.
Boxing has been rightly criticised in recent times for lacklustre cards but there is nothing negative about what Matchroom are serving up this weekend.
The entire ‘main card’ is full of competitive fights and I am here for it!
Long may it continue.
Loser Leaves Town?
The ramifications of the main event in BELFAST couldn’t be bigger.
Both Michael Conlan and Jordan Gill were once prospects but as time has ticked on, their careers have hit multiple speed bumps and they are now here in a must win.
Obviously Conlan has the bigger profile, he was given a HUGE contract after the 2016 Olympics.
From his debut at The Garden to Conor McGregor ring walking with him, he turned over with so much hype and I am sure those that initially invested would have expected him to be a world champion by now.
However, boxing just doesn’t work like that and two brutal losses in world title fights are now looming over him.
In fairness to Conlan, he was pretty flawless against Leigh Wood for 11 rounds.
But the result doesn’t lie and being on the end of a Knockout of the Year contender is a tough pill to swallow and I think we saw the effects of that against Lopez earlier this year.
I actually believe Conlan could beat Lopez with the correct game plan.
But he came out so reckless that night and in my opinion, that is because of what happened against Wood.
At this point, Conlan has to prove he can put those fights behind him,
At 32, its now or never for Conlan and I think that’s why he has moved away from Adam Booth.
Booth is a trainer I really rate and I won’t profess to know a great deal about Conlan’s new setup but the simple fact he has made the move, tell you a lot.
He knows it’s last chance saloon.
A defeat against Jordan Gill and the dream is over. For good.
Thrill or Spill?
I think Jordan Gill has been a little disrespected in the build up to this fight.
Despite being a former European champion, Gill has been given no chance this weekend by most people.
It’s easy to forget that Gill was once a serious prospect for Eddie Hearn.
Eddie tried to build something in Peterborough and it was only that shock defeat to Tinoco that derailed those plans.
Obviously, Eddie has sort of washed his hands these days but at his best, Jordan Gill can be a problem.
My worry is that we may have already seen the best of him.
Earlier I said a move of trainer is a good thing for Conlan but the change in trainer for Gill is a negative.
He had good guidance under Dave Coldwell and moving away from that setup is a big red flag for me.
The inactivity is another one.
Six fights in four years and one in eighteen months, just isn’t enough.
Especially when he was knocked out clean in his last fight.
All this, to me, suggests Jordan Gill is a fighter that is winding down.
He has a good chance to spark new life in his career this weekend but is the desire still there?
All in all, this is two vulnerable fighters fighting for their career but I think Conlan has some advantages, especially at home.
On recent performances, I can’t back him at 1/9 or whatever crazy price he is now but he should have enough to come through.
However, I am happy to take both sides and bet the under market here.
With so much on the line, I don’t expect either man to be cautious.
Official Pick: Fight to have under 8.5 rounds.
UNDERCARD.
The undercard here is so good.
In the co main event, Tyrone McKenna and Lewis Crocker will blow the roof off the SSE Arena in what has become a bitter rivalry during the build up.
Being local lads, I have no doubt these two respect eachother but they are so desperate to win and the war of words has begun because of that.
McKenna is the man with the experience.
Fights with the likes of Regis Prograis and Jack Catterall mean he is a seasoned pro at this point and Lewis Crocker is the new blood.
Many believe Crocker could be the next Belfast headliner but he has to prove it.
He hasn’t fought anyone even close to this level, yet.
That’s not saying he can’t compete here, I am sure he can but there is no denying how big this step up is.
Also, how will he handle the atmosphere?
It’s going to be nuts when these two ring walk.
McKenna is used to that.
Is Crocker?
It’s going to be fun finding out.
One big factor here will be the weight. Crocker is the natural welterweight, McKenna is coming up but it was the former who looked to struggle at today’s weigh in.
If Crocker has left his gas tank on the scales, he is in serious trouble but if he does rehydrate well, he will have a lot of physical advantages over McKenna and should be able to dominate up close.
Over ten rounds, I find it difficult to see Crocker getting McKenna out of there especially when he has only been stopped by Regis Prograis, even if he is considered a big puncher.
You can pick many holes in the technical ability of McKenna but you can’t doubt his heart.
He will bring everything on Saturday and I think that will be enough to push Lewis Crocker to the limit but the younger man should get the nod on the cards.
Official Pick: Lewis Crocker by decision.
Next up is another banger between Caoimhin Agyarko and Troy Williamson.
This mirrors the previous fight in the sense that you have the experienced one (Williamson) against the touted one (Agyarko).
Despite being a former British champion and having a record of 20-1-1 (14KO), Williamson has never really had the credit he deserves.
His sole defeat against Josh Kelly was one sided but Kelly can do that to anyone.
He has a specific style that is a nightmare for Williamson but don’t judge the former British champion on one night.
Look at his fight against Ted Cheeseman…
When someone comes to fight him toe-to-toe, Williamson is a very dangerous and capable man.
The question is what will Agyarko do?
There is no doubt he can box and fight but the problem so far in his career is that he looks stuck between the two styles.
Early in his career, Agyarko looked a devastating puncher but since signing with Matchroom in late 2021, he has reverted back towards a boxing style and has racked up three points decisions in four fights.
Agyarko has claimed an injury has caused him to be more cautious but the more cynical viewer has suggested he just doesn’t carry the power as he has moved through the levels.
One thing Agyarko will have to navigate is the size. Troy is a big light middleweight and he knows how to use his physicality.
Agyarko trains under Joe McNally and Declan O’Rourke so he will be well prepared but on the biggest night of his career so far, he will need to make sure he keeps control and doesn’t allow the naturally bigger man to build any momentum.
I am very (very) surprised that Troy is a big underdog here but with the fight being in Belfast, I think he might struggle to get it on the cards if it’s as close as I think.
Could be a fight of the year contender, though!
Last but not least on this card we have the clash between former teammates.
Sam Maxwell and Sean McComb have shared a gym and many sparring rounds but they now find themselves as opponents and it could turn into a really good fight.
Sam Maxwell has been a solid pro.
He has held British and Commonwealth honours and although he was knocked out by Dalton Smith last time, there is no shame in that.
Dalton is a world class prospect and Sam is just operating at a level or two below and this return to calmer waters could suit him.
Sean McComb is decent but not world class.
He has built a solid enough record but the one time he stepped up he was beaten soundly by Gavin Gwynne and other than that, he has fought people that he is expected to beat.
I am shocked Maxwell is a 7/2 underdog here.
I have talked myself out of backing him all week because it’s hard to bounce back from a knockout in just a few months but he matches up well with McComb in every department.
The question you have to ask is would McComb do any better against someone like Dalton Smith?
This is a 50/50 fight for me and Maxwell is overpriced.
After the weigh in, I decided I would take a gamble on the underdog!
Official Pick: Sam Maxwell to win
Garcia Is Back
Ryan Garcia is back and he is taking no prisoners.
This was a fight that was flying under the radar until Garcia jumped on the mic and started attacking his own promoter…
All the rubbish aside, I am excited to see Garcia back.
Boxing is a better sport with characters like this involved and for all the stuff outside the ring, he is a serious talent inside the ropes.
I think Garcia is a must better boxer than he is given credit and he is sometimes holed as this puncher who just has a left hook.
Duarte is decent and stubborn and exactly what Garcia needs as a comeback.
He will keep him honest and he will make him pay if he is having an off night.
I expect a more well rounded performance from Garcia here and ultimately a points victory before moving onto big fights.
Official Pick: Ryan Garcia to win by decision.
UFC IS BACK.
After a small break the UFC is back and although it’s at the Apex, it’s a solid card.
In the main event, Arman Tsarukyan takes on Beneil Dariush at lightweight with the winner looking to become next in line for the champion.
Tsarukyan hasn’t covered himself in glory this week with actions outside the octagon but his performance inside the cage since joining the UFC have been brilliant.
With a record of 7-2, he has only lost to the now champion and fellow contender Mateusz Gamrot, which was incredibly controversial. Many, myself included, thought he done enough to win that one and if he had, he may have already had a title shot.
Instead, he must go through a very seasoned vet in Dariush, who is looking to bounce back himself after being stopped by former champion Charles Oliveira.
Stylistically, these two matchup so well and if (when) it hit’s the mats, it will be a fascinating watch given how dangerous they both down there.
Dariush is still very dangerous but this looks setup for Tsarukyan to inch ever closer to a rematch with Makhachev.
Over five rounds, I think Tsarukyan will set too much of a quick pace for Dariush to live with and although he hasn’t always shown a finishing instinct, he is a fighter that’s improving at such a quick rate that he could still develop into a high level finisher.
Official Pick: Arman Tsarukyan inside the distance.
The Support Cast.
In the co main event, Jalin Turner steps in at late notice to take on veteran Bobby Green.
Green, who is 37 now, is riding a solid two fight win streak and his last win over Grant Dawson was very impressive but this task against Turner is a whole different prospect.
Anyone who has listened to me for a while knows how much I rate Turner and he is a freak of nature for this division.
At well over six foot, he is a physical specimen and although the weight cut must have been tough, I think this is a great opportunity get his career back on track after being beat by Dan Hooker earlier this year.
Green is a vet and a very difficult puzzle to work out but if Turner has learned from that defeat last time, he will come through this impressively.
Official Pick: Jalin Turner inside the distance.
The two other fights that stand out are Rob Font vs Deiveson Figueiredo and Sean Brady vs Kelvin Gastelum.
The fight between Font and Figueiredo is as 50/50 as it gets and will see Figueiredo make his bantamweight debut.
I can’t call a winner but Font is the established name at bantamweight and I worry about motivation with Figueiredo.
Brady vs Gastelum is my pick for a bonus this week.
Brady will be determined to bounce back after a disappointing defeat to Belal Muhammad and he has the perfect dance partner in Gastelum who is rarely in a bad fight.
I make Brady a decent favourite here, if he has overcome the demons of last time, but he will need to be on it because Gastelum is a fighter that can make you pay if your not.
It disappoints me to see Gastelum in the position he is but I think he is a fighter that is stuck between divisions. He has never really focused at middleweight or welterweight and the constant flicking between divisions has impacted his career.
A potential fight of the night but one that I think Brady comes through.
Official Pick: Sean Brady to win.
One final pick is Veronica Hardy to win.
I can’t really elaborate but simply this is a 50/50 and for some reason, Hardy is way overpriced.
OVER AND OUT & A WORD TO THE SPONSORS!
A long one this week but its something to get really excited about.
As always, a quick word to the sponsors who are the reason this community is growing so quick.
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Enjoy the fights!