Friday's Final Word - #24
Haney vs Prograis, Bournemouth on a Sunday & UFC at the Apex!
Evening all,
The next week three weeks are unbelievable for combat sports with consecutive elite action all over the world in both boxing and MMA and we will have it all covered!
Before we get into it, thank you to all those that upgraded their subscription this week, it is appreciated and if you haven’t, there is always time to get involved!
STARTING IN CALI.
Only one place to start this weekend and it’s one of the best matchups the year as Devin Haney jumps up to 140 to take on WBC champion Regis Prograis.
Anyone who has been reading or listening to my stuff for a while, will know how much I rate Haney.
Of all the ‘prospects’ we have seen at lightweight/super lightweight in recent years, I think he is the best.
I think his fan base has suffered a little bit because he doesn’t engage in firefights and never has.
He is a boxer first and as a lover of the sweet science, I think he is brilliant.
Because he does dominate people, most of the time in first gear, people think he can’t punch.
For me, this is a myth.
With a record of 30-0 (15KO), he can whack and I am sure if you ask the likes of George Kambosos and Vasyl Lomachenko when their is no camera on…they would agree.
While there is debate whether Haney can punch. There is no debate when it comes to Regis Prograis.
29-1 (24KO) proves just how much he can punch and three back to back knockout wins over Ivan Redkach, Tyrone McKenna and Jose Zepeda all back up that theory.
Those three men aren’t household names but they are tough and rarely get stopped.
Regis Prograis found a way.
‘Rougarou’ is more than just a puncher though.
A slick southpaw, he can make opponents look silly at times if he is allowed to get in a rhythm.
At 34, he may be entering the latter stages but he didn’t begin boxing until 17 so there aren’t many miles on his clock despite being almost a decade older than his opponent this weekend.
Raising Each Other Up?
Both men have been criticised in recent fights with some people suggesting they have been lucky on the cards.
Against Lomachenko, some people believed Haney got beat but let’s put that into context for a minute…
Lomachenko isn’t a mug or an easy night for ANYONE.
So Haney had a close fight with him?
If that’s all people can criticise Haney for…he is doing alright.
As for Prograis, he did under perform last time out against Daniellito Zorrilla but he won.
At this stage, Prograis needs people to challenge him and maybe he did overlook Zorrilla but he won’t make that mistake this weekend.
This is two elite fighters in the ring and I fully expect them to bring the best out in each other.
THE OUTCOME.
Beofre you make your own prediction, the below is worth a watch!
I think this move up in weight has come at the perfect time for Devin Haney and I expect him to shine this weekend.
I respect what Prograis brings, he is a BEAST but Haney is special and I actually think he will be the bigger man in the ring.
If this plays out how I expect, Haney will frustrate Prograis enough that he will go for broke in the second half of the fight and that will bring openings.
Obviously, we know Haney may shut up shop and accept a decision victory but I can see a statement coming to announce himself at 140.
Official Pick: Devin Haney to win by KO/TKO.
UNDERCARD.
The undercard here is solid enough with the standout being Liam Paro vs Montana Love.
Paro, who was scheduled to fight in Liverpool against Robbie Davies Jr earlier this year, is highly touted coming out of Australia but we haven’t since him since his one round demolition of Brock Jarvis over a year ago.
Montana Love looked like he was going to be Eddie Hearn’s guy when Matchroom moved into the US but things haven’t quite worked out and his performance last time was embarassing.
To get disqualified when a fight isn’t going your way is a real red flag and I think there was a side of Montana Love that was exposed in that fight.
The odds are slightly off for me to have a pick here but I think Paro has the better skillset. He will need to overcome the lay-off but I wouldn’t put anyone off Paro by decision…it’s just a bit short for my liking.
The other name on the card to keep an eye on is amateur superstar Andy Cruz who takes a decent step-up in just his second fight.
Jovanni Straffon is well known to UK fans after battering James Tennyson in 2021 but he then dropped a decision to Maxi Hughes and the hype died down a little bit.
There is a clear way to beat Straffon and it plays perfectly into the hands of Cruz.
The Cuban star is still settling into the pro’s but I think we could see Straffon refuse to come out after about the halfway stage here.
CAN YOU DO IT IN BOURNEMOUTH ON A SUNDAY?
That will be the question newly crowned WBO cruiserweight champion Chris Billam-Smith will need to answer this weekend as he welcomes Mateusz Masternak to Bournemouth.
This is actually a solid first defence as a champion but the card is just strange.
Firstly the positives, CBS could have had easier first defences than this so he deserves some props but I still expect him to come through it well.
Masternak is a solid, seasoned campaigner but he is in the deep end of his 30’s now and not the force of old.
He is a very tough man and will arrive in Bournemouth with ambition but I just don’t know if will be able to keep up with the youthful confidence that CBS will bring.
We have seen it many times before when someone becomes champion, they go to a new level and I think Billam-Smith will do just that.
In the long run, I think it will be tough for him to remain champion in this division but while he is here…I think it will be a success.
He punches harder than he is given credit for, as well.
Masternak will be his usual tough self but I think CBS will find a way to get a stoppage here and start his reign as champion off in perfect fashion.
Official Pick: Chris Billam-Smith by KO/TKO.
I love to give you as much value as I possibly can on this newsletter and I have looked at this undercard all week to find ANYTHING to talk about.
It’s horrendous.
If you have a ticket…get in about 5 mins before the main event.
UFC.
UFC are back at the Apex with bantamweights Song Yadong and Chris Gutierrez headlining.
Fighting out of Team Alpha Male, Song Yadong is 12 fights into his UFC career now and ranked #7 but he is still holding onto the tag of being a prospect.
There is no doubting his talent and his knockout victory over Ricky Simon is a very impressive piece of form but it feels like the next twelve months feels like make or break for Yadong.
He needs to breakout of the pack as a genuine contender or I fear he may start to be matched with those further down the rankings and be viewed as a ‘scalp’.
He actually fights the #15 ranked guy here in Gutierrez and although I don’t feel like this is the UFC trying to get him replaced, it is certainly a tougher task than most are expecting.
At 32, Chris Gutierrez is finally making in roads in the UFC and this is a a big opportunity for him to go from middle of the road guy to contender.
On all known form, he is up against it but he is the type of fighter that finds a way in fights and I can’t write him off in this one.
Stylistically, Yadong is quicker and more powerful but Gutierrez has made people look silly before when they have underestimated him and if he was to get the win this weekend, I wouldn’t be surprised.
No pick for me in this but a fight I am really interested in.
The co-main is very interesting as veteran Anthony Smith jumps in at late notice to take on Khalil Rountree.
I am a massive fan of Anthony Smith, I have enjoyed his career and love hearing him talk about MMA but it’s no secret that he is edging towards the exit door in his MMA career.
At this stage of his career, it worries me that he has taken the fight on short notice and you have to wonder about his motivation for that but it could just be that he is a born fighter.
The phone went and he answered..this is how he pays his bills after all!
But to jump in at late notice into a fight like this leaves him at a disadvantage especially when you consider that he has already had two fights this year and took a lot of damage in both.
As much as I don’t like the fight for Smith, I think it makes a lot of sense for Khalil Rountree.
The 33-year-old is in veteran stage now but he is arguably in the form of his career and comes into this well prepared unlike his opponent.
He is riding a four fight win streak, winning three inside the distance and his confidence will be trending in the right direction this weekend.
I believe this will win a bonus in some sense and with the lack of preparation on Smith’s side, I have to side with Khalil Rountree in this one.
Official Pick: Khalil Rountree ITD.
A FIGHT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
The fight flying under the radar for me this week is Andre Muniz vs Jun Yong Park at middleweight.
Muniz is looking to bounce back after being stopped by Paul Craig in London but he is a very talented fighter that is more than capable of putting another run together.
Jun Yong Park, otherwise known as The Iron Turtle, comes into this in the form of his career with three rear naked choke finishes in a row.
These are both exceptional submission artists so this is likely to end up on the mat but it will be fascinating viewing for as long as it lasts.
I edge towards Muniz as I think he has got the broader skillset and I am surprised he starts as the underdog but I think it’s because he is riding a two fight losing streak and Jun Yong Park is winning.
But context is king and Muniz has lost to Paul Craig and Brendan Allen…two fighters who can beat anyone on their day.
Don’t get me wrong, this is a solid 50/50 matchup but Muniz shouldn’t be underdog.
Whoever wins…it will be by submission if you can find ‘either fighter’ markets!
Official Pick: Andre Muniz to win.
There is one other bet on the card and that is Nasrat Haqparast to beat Jamie Mullarkey by decision.
There isn’t much to add to this one but I just believe Haqparast is ahead in almost every department.
I expect it to be close but Haqparast needs a win and I think it will come here.
Official Pick: Nasrat Haqparast to win by decision.
Enjoy the fights this weekend, we have some massive stuff coming.
We will be back with the review newsletter on Monday and then build up to a massive weekend that includes both UFC 296 and Edwards vs Rodriguez!
Let’s go!
See you all soon…