Friday's Final Word - #26
All Eyes On Saudi Arabia
Evening all,
Welcome to the last Final Word newsletter of 2024 and what a year it’s been.
We have grown so much and have so many exciting new things coming in the new year and we already have so much to look forward to when it comes to combat sports.
2023 isn’t done just yet, though.
A whole host of heavyweights have arrived in Saudi this week looking to get involved with what some are calling ‘The new home of boxing’.
I am not sure if that is the case…(yet) but this card is a statement of intent and proves the money in Saudi Arabia has caught the attention of every single fighter, promoter and manager in the game.
ROWDY IN SAUDI.
No fewer than nine of the top twenty heavyweights in the world will be on this card the weekend but none of them are in a more critical fight than our own Anthony Joshua.
‘AJ’ is reaching make or break point in his quest to become three weight world champion and he faces a man this weekend who gave Tyson Fury all he could handle.
And forced him into getting 50+ stitches in his face for good measure.
A couple of years ago, this would have been a favourable matchup for AJ but he now has people doubting he is the same animal he once was and for good reason.
I don’t buy into the narrative that he is finished.
I just think he is lost.
Four trainers in two years suggests that.
He will come into this fight with Ben Davison in his corner which for is a good move but it goes to show how unsettled the two-time heavyweight champion he is.
Since moving on from Rob McCracken, which I believe to be a mistake, he has lost his identity as a boxer completely.
If you watch all of his fights from Ruiz 2, he is stuck between about five different styles.
In the early days, he knew what he was and more importantly, he had the confidence to go out and fight on the front foot.
Obviously, the knockout to Ruiz was a huge setback and naturally with age, ‘AJ’ has become a more cautious, orthodox fighter.
The problem being that side of his game isn’t good enough to compete against the elite heavyweights.
Joshua isn’t good enough to stand and box with Usyk (we seen that twice) and he certainly isn’t good enough to do it with Fury.
His boxing ability isn’t good enough to stay away from Wilder’s right hand either.
So, in my opinion, the old AJ is the only way he is competitve in the current heavyweight division.
He needs to get to people before they get to him.
If he can do that, he could beat them all.
The problem is…does that fighter who dominated the division in 2016-2019 still exist?
WALLIN BEFORE WILDER?
With a potential fight with Wilder (get to him in a minute) booked for March back in Saudi, is a methodical decision victory over Wallin enough this weekend?
I would suggest not.
Now, everything (EVERYTHING) will be in the favour of AJ this weekend.
That isn’t me putting a conspiracy hat on that is just a fact.
Wallin needs a knockout if he is to win here and I think he knows it but I also believe that makes him vulnerable.
In 27 fights, Wallin hasn’t been stopped so I can understand why some may wonder why I think that but from watching everything in fight week, I believe Wallin knows what he is up against.
I think he fancies the job, too.
At some point, this is going to catch fire.
At that point, the old AJ needs to return.
We don’t know if that man still exists but I hope he does.
Official Pick: Anthony Joshua by KO/TKO/Anthony Joshua to win in rounds 7-12.
The other chip in this much publicised fight next March is Deontay Wilder and he takes on Joseph Parker in the co-main event which is a dangerous fight.
Despite no longer being unbeaten, Wilder is still the most dangerous heavyweight on the planet and if anything, his reputation has grown after his trilogy with Fury.
Obviously, he was exposed to a certain extent in those fights but Tyson Fury is a unique fighter and character.
Wilder proved in those fights that he is much more than just a puncher too.
What he may lack in technical ability, he makes up for with heart and grit and I think we will need to see that again this weekend.
Joe Parker, who is also a former world champion, is still rebuilding after being knocked out by Joe Joyce in 2022 but he has strung a few wins together and with his close ties to the Fury camp, he will be in Saudi confident that he can get his career back on track here.
Like Wilder, Parker is respected throughout the sport of boxing and no matter who he fights, he will always give a good account of himself and I don’t expect anything different this weekend.
I think Wilder will win but I don’t think it will be easy and I expect Joe Parker to have his moments in this fight.
His team will have a good plan and I would be astonished if he just walked straight into Wilder’s right hand early doors.
The problem for Parker is I don’t think he has enough power to deter Wilder at any point and when this fight reaches the second half, I think he will start to tire and could get taken out.
No pick for me in this but that’s how I see it playing out.
Moving onto the fight that has stole the most headlines…
Daniel Dubois vs Jarrell Miller.
It goes without saying that I have no respect for Jarrell Miller.
He has no business being in a boxing ring.
He is a blatant cheat but he is in a sport that if you know the right people, you can find yourself still earning a shed load of money even if you have been found guilty of cheating.
So from a personal point of view, I hope Daniel Dubois irons him out inside a round and that is the last time we see Miller in a professional boxing ring but unfortunately, sport and boxing in particular, very rarely plays out like that.
At today’s weigh in, Miller was 100lbs heavier than Dubois and to be honest, they looked like men in two different weight classes.
(VIDEO COURTESY OF FIGHTHUBTV)
As I said earlier, technically this isn’t a contest.
Dubois is better in every single department.
The issue could come if he can’t get rid of Miller earlier.
In his two defeats, against Usyk and Joyce, the heart of Dubois was questioned and if Miller manages to drag him late and tire him out, will we see the same sort of attitude?
I think the tactics from Miller will be pretty simple here but I also (annoyingly) think they will be quite effective.
He will suffocate any space between him and Dubois and make Dubois wrestle and fight for position with the sole goal of tiring him out.
The only way Dubois knocks Miller out is if the fight plays out at mid-long range and I just can’t see Miller letting that happen.
I expect this to be a horrible fight on the eye and if it plays out the way I expect, there is only one winner but this is purely down to the limitations of Daniel Dubois rather than the talent or class of Jarrell Miller.
***I have to give my honest opinion on fights but if this pick was to lose and Dubois knocked Miller clean out, I would be the happiest man around**.
Official Pick: Jarrell Miller to win.
The class act on the card is Dmitry Bivol and he is taking on Lyndon Arthur in a defence of his WBA light heavyweight title.
With all due respect to Arthur, this is a fight Bivol will win and I expect him to look very good.
The Russian to win inside the distance is my main bet this weekend and my strongest fancy in some time.
Assessing both fighters, he is just superior in every department.
That is no slight on Arthur, it’s just Bivol is an elite talent in my opinion.
I rate him as one of the best boxers in the world and I just don’t see any way that Lyndon Arthur beats him or even troubles him.
Arthur is a solid competitor but he was hurt last fight and that was multiple levels below this.
He has been a brilliant servant to British boxing as both an amateur and professional so I hope he is getting a career high payday but he will do well to make it out of six rounds, in my opinion.
Bivol has an elite jab and more power than he is given credit and I expect his class to show very early in this one.
Official Pick: Dmitry Bivol to win by KO/TKO.
The depth of this card is shown when the best cruiserweight in the world, Jai Opetaia is barely getting any column inches in the press.
Opetaia isn’t a fighter that really looks for spotlight but his ability thrusts him into it.
He is a frightening talent and at 23-0 (18KO), he looks set to dominate the cruiserweight division for the foreseeable future.
There are going to be bigger nights ahead but this is a fight which Jai can shine again and showcase his talents in front of an audience and perhaps more importantly, in front of those who are financing this influx from Saudi Arabia.
I have no doubt that in the next 1-2 years, Opetaia will be headlining cards like this and I expect a statement from him this weekend.
A bit like Bivol earlier, Jai is fighting Ellis Zorro who is a solid campaigner but he is not a world class fighter and he has shown nothing so far that will worry the champion, at all.
This is a watching brief for me because there are some huge nights for Opetaia in the near future but I would expect him to dismantle Zorro inside four rounds.
The final pick on the card comes in the Filip Hrgovic vs Mark De Mori fight.
Quite frankly, this fight is a joke.
De Mori is 41 and most famous for being David Haye’s comeback opponent.
He was blown out inside a round that night and he has done nothing since to suggest he has improved.
The minute Hrgovic lands, this is over.
Hrgovic may need a little confidence boosting win like this because he is on the edge of some big fights in 2024 but despite all the matchups ahead of this being acceptable…this is pathetic.
A non contest.
Official Pick: Filip Hrgovic to win in rounds 1-2.
SIGNING OFF FOR THE YEAR.
That is the last newsletter of the year and I just wanted to thank you all for the continued support.
I will be back in the early new year with some bonus content and then we will be back to normal as the UFC and boxing begin to get going in the second week of January.
I hope you all have a wonderful Christmas.
See you soon!