Friday's Final Word -#26
Preview and Picks For UFC297 & Natasha Jonas vs Mikaela Mayer.
Evening all,
It’s good to be back and I hope you all enjoyed the break!
I am usually ready for a small break from combat sports by time Christmas rolls around but this year I was eager to get back.
Boxing is suddenly booming thanks to the powers that be in Saudi Arabia and the UFC continues to go from strength to strength.
When you add the fact that promotions like PFL, with the acquisition of Bellator, are putting on stellar cards too. It’s a good time to be a combat sports fan!
Here’s to a great year and thank you for the continued support!
UFC297.
We are only in January and the UFC has already announced some amazing cards for the first part of 2024 and it all starts this weekend in Toronto, Canada!
The main event between Sean Strickland and Dricus Du Plessis has built itself to this point with constant back and forth over social media, as well as a small altercation while they were both spectating at a UFC event in December which went viral.
This was followed by both of them taking personal digs and an apparent threatening direct message from Strickland.
However, during fight week things have turned almost respectable and as we edge closer to the fight, you can see that both men do respect each other.
RISKY FIRST DEFENCE FOR STRICKLAND?
As far as first defences go, this is a tough one for Strickland but that sums him up.
Whatever your opinion of him as a man, you can’t fault his attitude as a fighter.
He will fight anyone at anytime and although we have seen that with a lot of fighters over the year, it sometimes changes when they get hold of a belt.
As much as the UFC enforces certain fights, there are ways for champions to delay fights or become inactive until the right fight comes up.
Not Strickland.
As the middleweight rankings currently stand, this is the most dangerous fight he could have taken.
Du Plessis is 6-0 in the UFC and although many, myself included, haven’t always been impressed with his performances…his finishes over the likes of Till & Whittaker are impressive and nobody can deny that.
His style isn’t always easy on the eye - but its effective.
And isn’t that the most important thing?
Du Plessis won’t care if he ‘looks’ good as long as the wins keep stacking up.
As I assess this fight, I just can’t get away from that win over Robert Whittaker.
Like most people, I was convinced that Whittaker would run straight through the South African.
After a performance like that, I believe he should be favourite.
The natural counter argument will be Strickland is coming off a career best performance against Israel Adesanya to win the belt and that is something I understand but my feeling is there was more at play in that fight than just Strickland performing well.
That doesn’t take anything away from Strickland, he had to get in the octagon and perform but it’s hard to say with authority that Adesanya was at full capacity.
Strickland is a veteran and has earned his spot as champion but I just can’t get away from Du Plessis here.
I rewatched their recent fights this week and the only niggling concern for me is his gas tank over five rounds.
In the Till fight he gassed pretty badly and I know he has since said he had a nose problem but Strickland will set a genuine pace.
Can Du Plessis live with it?
If he does, I think he becomes the new champion this weekend.
Strickland won’t give this title up easy but his style won’t change.
They have both said it themselves, these are two fighters that go forwards and forwards only.
It will make a great fight for us to watch but I believe we hear AND THE NEW.
Official Pick: Dricus Du Plessis to win.
PRELIM ROUND-UP.
This isn’t the strongest UFC card ever but it features some decent bouts and some prospects to keep an eye on.
The fight that immediately jumps out is Arnold Allen vs Movsar Evloev at featherweight.
Allen is a likeable guy and a real gem for British MMA but I think this is a horrible matchup for him, especially coming off the defeat to Max Holloway.
Holloway can beat anyone, we know that but it was a humbling victory for Allen and to now be matched with someone as well rounded as Evloev is tough.
In a world dependent on viral moments, Evloev is never going to be the most popular or well known but his all round game is so good and I believe he will be a problem for everybody at this weight.
His most recent win against Diego Lopes is working out really well, too.
Lopes came in at short notice on that fight and put in a brilliant performance but Evloev had enough to come through.
Lopes has since won two fights.
Both inside a round.
It couldn’t be a better form boost, really.
Allen hasn’t done anything wrong during his UFC career and like I said earlier, anyone can lose to Holloway but as the old saying goes…styles make fights.
The biggest advantage Evloev has is his wrestling. It’s such an asset for him and although Allen has handled wrestlers well in the past, I am not sure he will have dealt with anyone who puts it together like Evloev.
On the other hand, the one advantage for Allen will be his size.
At featherweight, he will always have size on his opponents and to his credit, he makes it pay, you only need to look at his fight with Dan Hooker to see how effectively he can use it but I do favour Evloev here and although Allen will be competitive throughout, I struggle to see how he wins.
For me, this one goes the distance and the wrestling of Evloev will just be the difference.
However, I think both men will be staples of this division for a long time!
Official Pick: Movsar Evloev by decision
A FIGHT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
Charles Jourdain is a fighter that has featured in this section of the newsletter multiple times but he is often in the most entertaining fight on the card!
He is 6-5-1 in the UFC so on paper he looks like a middle of the road contender but I don’t believe it tells the full story.
At 28, he is finally maturing and in a lot of his early losses, he didn’t help himself.
He has/had a tendency to throw crazy attacks during fights and he learnt quickly that it very rarely works at UFC level.
He is currently on a two fight win streak and finally looks like a threat in this division and this fight against Woodson is a good opportunity to claim a third successive victory and setup a big 2024 for himself.
Woodson is a solid fighter with a 4-1 UFC record but if you watch his fights back, especially the one with Dennis Buzujka, he can be hit clean and that’s a dangerous spot to be in this weekend.
This is a fight that hasn’t received a great deal of media coverage but I think it’s the sleeper on the card.
Official Pick: Charles Jourdain ITD.
The two other fights that appeal on the main card is Mike Malott vs Neil Magny and Chris Curtis vs Marc-Andre Barriault.
Malott is the new Canadian hope but this is a real step-up against Magny, who is looking to bounce back after his defeat to Ian Garry.
It’s a classic prospect vs vet matchup and although Malott has finished everyone so far in his UFC career but they were all at a much lower level this.
I expect him to win but Magny is a consummate professional who can ask questions this weekend.
No pick here for me but it would be a very impressive victory for Mike Malott if he can pull it off.
Chris Curtis finds himself on the card as the chief training partner of Sean Strickland and he gets a matchup with Marc Andre-Barriault and I think it’s a good move for both men.
With the greatest respect, neither of these men will ever be champion but they can still be in competitive, relevant fights.
They matchup well together and they both know what it’s like to win/lose so I don’t expect much of a feeling out process here.
I couldn’t confidently say who will win but I don’t expect this to go the distance, either way.
Also keep an eye out for Sam Patterson who is looking to bounce back after being knocked out in his debut last year.
It would have been hard to be knocked out in London, in front of your home crowd, so taking some time off was a smart move but this isn’t an easy fight to come back to.
Yohan Lianesse is a big, powerful welterweight but he has holes in his game which were exploited by both Mike Malott and Gabe Green.
Both men are desperate for a win and this is a fight that could catch fire very quickly.
NATASHA JONAS BACK IN LIVERPOOL.
Liverpool plays host to the first domestic card of the year and Natasha Jonas will be hoping to secure some legacy defining fights later this year but defeating Mikaela Mayer won’t be easy.
For those of you that have access to The Early Picks Post, you will know I haven’t made a prediction on this fight and to be honest, I am struggling.
Fundamentally, Tasha is the better boxer but I think this move to welterweight is perfect for Mikaela Mayer.
I actually think she could be a bit of a force at this weight.
So far, she hasn’t shown great punching power but when she gets momentum she is a really difficult fighter to slow down and she will be able to use her size more effectively at this weight.
Tasha is a puncher.
One of the few genuine punchers in women’s boxing and she will need to use it here to deter Mayer.
If she can get her respect, she can bank rounds and take this one by decision but I am so intrigued by this fight.
The winner sets up some gigantic fights with the likes of Shields, Cameron and Taylor and the loser will find themself chasing the pack.
At 39, Jonas can’t afford the loss at this point so I expect her to be at her absolute best.
May the best woman win.
The undercard doesn’t excite the casual fan but there are two fights that I like.
First up, the rematch between Zak Chelli and Jack Cullen.
The first fight in 2020 was under the cloud of Covid19 but it was a telling match and after watching it again this week, I believe Chelli was unlucky not to come away with the win.
Since then, he has gone 6-1 with the only defeat coming last time out when he came up short against Mark Jeffers (more on him soon) but there is no shame in that.
At this level, Chelli is at the top of the tree and I think he will fancy this fight, given the fact Cullen has been stopped twice in his last four fights.
It’s not been all negative for Cullen though.
He did stop Mark Heffron last time out which is a brilliant win but Heffron was naive on the night and played right into the hands of Cullen.
I don’t think Chelli will make the same mistake.
The crowd will be pro Cullen, it always is with the amount of tickets he sells, and the two belts attached to this fight will bring out a bit more in each man but I believe there is much upside in Chelli.
I am surprised he is underdog and for me, that is a mistake by the bookies.
Official Pick: Zak Chelli to win.
Mark Jeffers beat Chelli as an underdog last time out and he is making the first defence of his English title here against Germaine Brown.
Jeffers is 16-0 (4KO) but after covering a fair bit of his early career, I am convinced he punches harder than that record suggests.
He proved in the Chelli fight that he is an accomplished boxer but I am hoping he shows the other side of his game here.
Brown is tidy boxer but he has fell short at this domestic level before and I expect a similar story here.
English title fights rarely disappoint and I don’t expect this one too either.
Official Pick: Mark Jeffers by KO/TKO.
That’s all for our first newsletter of the year but it’s so good to be back.
The weekend review will be out on Monday as usual and the fights keep rolling in every weekend now which will keep us entertained!
Thank you for the continued support and good luck if you are following the picks this weekend.
Please remember to gamble responsibly. This is fun and nothing more!