Friday's Final Word - #27
Buatsi vs Azeez, UFC at the Apex & Conor Benn in Vegas....sort of.
Evening all,
I know we are all trying to get our head round Fury pulling out of the Usyk fight but we can’t stay down for long as we have a big weekend in front of us with Joshua Buatsi vs Dan Azeez finally happening, a solid UFC card to enjoy and the small matter of Conor Benn returning…in a small Las Vegas hotel.
LONDON IS CALLING.
The natural place to start is London and the first big domestic fight of the year.
As fight week has progressed, my excitement has grown for this fight and my opinion on how it plays out has changed.
Back in October, when the fight was originally meant to happen, I thought it was a real 50/50 and if anything, I was favouring Dan Azeez.
I can’t pick him with any confidence this time round.
The biggest doubt I have is the injury that put him out of the original fight.
If rumours are to be believed, the back injury he sustained was pretty serious and he has mentioned himself how much trouble it gave him.
In just over four months, how has he had time to let that heal and complete a full camp in preparation for this?
The natural argument is he has already completed the camp in October and he would have needed to just sharpen up for this.
I can’t subscribe to that way of thinking and the Liam Smith performance in the second fight with Chris Eubank Jr is the reason why.
Liam sustained an injury, rushed back and look how it impacted him.
Obviously, Liam and Dan are different fighters, different men but the fact is if you don’t or can’t prepare for fights at this level, it usually doesn’t end well.
It’s well documented how much better Joshua Buatsi was as an amateur but there is a real argument that Dan Azeez has been the better professional.
In 20 fights, he has cleaned out the domestic light heavyweight division and his knockout of Thomas Faure was impressive considering he went over as the ‘away’ fighter.
Wins over Shakkan Pitters, Hosea Burton, Rocky Fielding & Reece Cartwright are all solid wins too.
As for Joshua Buatsi, it’s all been underwhelming.
He came out of the 2016 Olympics as a fighter to be excited about.
He was easily marketable and in his early fights, he looked destructive and spiteful.
A guaranteed world champion most said.
But somewhere along the way the wheels fell off.
Change of trainer, inactivity and underwhelming performances have killed all the initial buzz.
Ultimately, four fights in five years just isn’t good enough for a potential world champion.
His move away from Eddie Hearn and to Boxxer (and Sky Sports) was meant to be the injection of momentum he needed so badly but that hasn’t played out either.
However, despite all the negativity, there is still time.
Still time for him to realise his potential.
Still time to become a force at 175lb.
But it HAS to start this weekend and it has to be impreesive.
THE OUTCOME
I have gone back and forth on this and the thing I always come back to is that injury Azeez suffered.
I can’t see how he has fully recovered from it and if his camp has been about maintaining his body rather than finding a way to beat Joshua Buatsi, he is up against it.
I also think we have seen a new side to Buatsi.
To me, he has become more outspoken and more touchy with the media.
That’s a man under pressure.
I think he knows this is it.
If he doesn’t deliver this weekend, his career at the highest level will be in jeopardy.
For some that would break them.
It may break him but I have a feeling it goes the other way.
I think due to a combination of pressure and the lingering injury, we will see Joshua Buatsi claim the biggest win of his career.
Official Pick: Joshua Buatsi to win by KO/TKO.
THE UNDERCARD.
It’s becoming the ‘norm’ for Sky Sports and Boxxer but the undercard is very weak.
Adam Azim is the standout name and he is in a decent enough fight against Enoch Poulsen but it’s a fight he should win.
He holds pretty much every advantage over Poulsen and I don’t think Shane McGuigan or Boxxer are in any rush for real tests but it’s a fight where we should see some improvement.
Despite a few highlight reel moments, I don’t think Azim is going to be a huge puncher as he goes through the levels and this might be one where he needs to be a bit more patient.
Poulsen brings confidence as an undefeated fighter and he is a decent fighter but I don’t think he has the power to hurt Azim or win enough rounds to make it competitive.
No pick from me but don’t be surprised if this goes the distance.
Ben Whittaker and Caroline Dubois get their usual slot on a big card.
Despite all the hype, I am not overly convinced by either fighter and we won’t find out anything we don’t already know this weekend.
It’s a walk over job for Whittaker and from the tape I have watched this week, Dubois should have no issues either.
I don’t usually go on the under markets in female boxing, due to the rounds but there are so many holes in….game that I think Dubois will find a finish and find it early.
Official Pick: Caroline Dubois and to have under 6.5 rounds.
UFC.
After a week off, the UFC is back and it’s the first of eleven shows in a row for us to all enjoy!
Despite being at the Apex, this is a decent card and the main event between Roman Dolidze and Nassaourdine Imavov is really interesting.
The middleweight division is reinvigorated since Du Plessis beat Strickland and the winner here could be in touching distance of a title shot in the next twelve months.
These are two imposing athletes , both on good streaks and they matchup really well in every department.
It’s possible they could cancel each-other out here and that means the fight will go one of two ways.
Either a dragged out five rounds with little action.
Or they will stand and bang.
I hope it’s the latter but either way, I think it’s Roman Dolidze who has the best chance of coming out on top.
Surprisingly, he is underdog here and quite a big underdog so I am backing him this weekend.
For me, this is a 50/50 but it’s not priced in that way and hopefully we can take advantage of that.
Official Pick: Roman Dolidze to win.
The undercard features some local interest with Molly McCann facing Diana Belbita for a second time.
Molly won a decision the first time round and I think it goes the same way this weekend.
The move down to strawweight is an interesting one and not something I think works long term but Molly needs to do something to turn her form around.
No win since July 2022 has put some pressure on her and a win is imperative here if she is going to remain relevant on the UFC roster.
She is better than Belbita, there is no need to break that down in any great detail but I expect her to take the safest route to victory.
She has had gas tank issues in the past and that could be a bigger problem with a tougher weight cut so I don’t expect her to go for any big finishes.
Official Pick: Molly McCann to win by decision.
Another fighter to keep an eye on is Aliaskhab Khiriev vs Makhmud Muradov.
Muradov is a good fighter but the intrigue here is all around Khiriev.
He is undefeated and very exciting but this is his first fight in almost two years and nobody really knows why.
It’s not uncommon for Russian fighters to take huge breaks but the silence is baffling.
If his ability remains, he is a serious problem for the middleweight division but I guess we won’t know until Saturday night.
Based on his old tape, I can’t pass him up here and I think he gets this done in style.
Official Pick: Aliaskhab Khizriev ITD.
A FIGHT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
This is my big fight to keep an eye on this weekend but to be honest, it’s more a FIGHTER to keep an eye on.
Azat Maksum is a very exciting flyweight and he gets a decent test here against Charles Johnson who is much more experienced.
Unfortunately for Johnson, he is falling into sparring partner mode in recent years and seems to be getting the call to give prospects the leg up.
He is talented in his own right but his position on the roster now is gatekeeper and although he takes most of them the distance, I think Maksum is the exception.
He only managed to get a split decision win on his debut but I have watched a lot of his tape this week (it was a pleasure) and he is a serious finisher.
I think because of his UFC debut and how close it was, Johnson may open up here but that will be his downfall.
Don’t miss this, it could be the birth of a flyweight star.
Official Pick: Azat Maksum ITD.
Two other fights worthy of a mention are Randy Brown vs Muslim Salikhov and Renato Moicano vs Drew Dober.
The first of those mentioned may not be the most exciting fight on the card, but its very competitive and I think it’s Randy Brown who comes away with the win.
At 39, Salikhov is slowing down and although Randy Brown is never going to be a world champion, he is a fighter that racks up wins at anything other than ‘world level’.
When he steps up, he loses but this is his level and I expect him to navigate the three rounds effectively.
Moicano vs Dober will serve as the co-main event and it’s a very good fight between two contrasting fighters.
Moicano is a wizard on the mat and is quickly becoming a very popular fighter but this is a tough fight against the man who owns the record for the most knockouts in lightweight history.
I can’t pick a winner here so no pick but I don’t think it goes the distance.
Official Pick: Randy Brown by decision.
CONOR BENN IN VEGAS….KIND OF.
I debated not talking about this fight because I am still annoyed that Benn gets the opportunity to earn money from the sport he should be banned from.
The fact he still hasn’t proved his innocence is the reason this fight is taking place in the back streets of Las Vegas and the reason nobody will be in attendance.
It will take Benn a long time to get back to the level he was (rightly so) but I don’t expect Eddie Hearn to stop trying to convince us he is a welterweight contender.
It’s not nice to talk negatively about a fighter that I rated so highly at one time but his behaviour around this drug test fiasco deserves it.
As far as the fight goes, Dobson is merely an opponent and will be there to do his job but don’t be surprised to see it go the distance.
Benn is no longer the big puncher they were selling a year or two ago.
One bet on the card is under 2.5 rounds in the Fisher vs Bezus fight.
Johnny Fisher is a heavyweight still learning but the last time we seen Bezus he got flattened by David Adeleye and showed little defence.
Fisher will be responsible for most of the fans in the arena(?) this weekend so they will want a knockout.
Official Pick: Fisher vs Bezus under 2.5 rounds.
That’s all for this week but we will be back on Monday with the review and then later in the week for more previews as the world of combat sports begins to click into gear for 2024!
For anyone getting involved with the picks…please gamble responsibly.
See you next week!
UFC on a bad run right now…. Back to back Ls 😂
Yep tough weekend - if you have been around a while though you know what usually follows that…