FRIDAY'S FINAL WORD - #29

BREAKDOWN & PREDICTIONS FOR UFC 289.

Evening all,

With no boxing of note this weekend - UFC 298 gets our full attention this week and it’s an unbelievable card!

Fight week has been brilliant with Topuria stealing a lot of headlines (both good and bad) and it feels like opinion has continuously changed all week, especially on the main event.

The rest of the card is brilliant, too.

Former champions, future title contenders & grudge matches…UFC at it’s best.

ELITE MAIN EVENT.

I haven’t been this excited for a fight in a long time and a lot of that is because of Ilia Topuria.

I am a HUGE fan of Volk (who isn’t) but it’s hard to not buy into the confidence Topuria has.

In combat sports, confidence can be false.

So many talk a great game but the actions don’t necessarily back it up.

When Topuria talks…it’s believable.

He believes he will beat Volkanovski this weekend.

What featherweight contender in recent times has TRULY believed they will beat Volk?

How can you not be excited by that?

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For every person like me getting excited, there are those that say he is egotistical or that he is trying to be Conor McGregor and I understand it.

For a challenger, Topuria has been dismissive of Volk and I can see why people take that the wrong way.

The champ will eventually be in the hall of fame and there is a real debate that he is the greatest 145lb fighter we have ever seen but I think Topuria does respect him.

The face-off at the weigh in shows you that.

Once that opening bell goes…you will see respect between these two men.

LIGHTWEIGHT HANGOVER?

A lot of talk this week has been around how Volk will recover from being knocked out by Makhachev last year and even though he has been adamant it won’t be an issue, it’s impossible just to forget a knockout like that.

By his own admission, he wasn’t living the correct way before that fight and it was on late notice so you have to take all this into consideration but also, there is nothing wrong with losing to someone like Makhachev.

The one doubt I have is that there are a lot of miles on the clock and not just in MMA.

He had a Rugby career before he transitioned so as an athlete, he isn’t a young man and as corny as the saying is…father time is undefeated.

I personally think that defeat has taken a lot from him but but he undefeated at featherweight and with his body of work, he deserves the chance to prove he is still the man at 145.

WHICH WAY DOES IT GO?

Since he got into the UFC, I have always seen Ilia Topuria as a future world champion and I think that happens this weekend.

As much as I respect Volk, I think he is bumping into a younger, fresher version of himself this weekend.

It’s hard to find holes in either skillset but Topuria is an elite talent and timing is everything.

To retain his belt, Volk will need to defy science with fighters over 35 years old being 0-14 in championship UFC fights.

If anyone can, it’s him but I believe the younger man gets the job done and goes on to reign in this division for a long, long time.

Official Pick: Ilia Topuria to win.

THE SUPPORT CAST.

In the co-main event, Robert Whittaker is looking to get his career back on track and I really hope he comes through against Paulo Costa.

The former champ is a fans favourite and for good reason.

He carries himself like a champion still and it was hard to watch him unravel the way he did against Dricus Du Plessis last time.

Obviously, DDP has gone on to claim the belt but nobody thought they would see Whittaker outgunned like that.

Despite all the love from the fans, Whittaker finds himself with something to prove.

Like Volk, he has got a lot of miles on the clock and can he continue to fight at this level?

I guess we will find out.

Costa is a weird guy to evaluate.

He barely fights, when he does he misses weight but other than that, he is a genuine talent.

At 32, he is in last chance saloon territory here but if he puts it all together, he can win this weekend.

He made weight, too.

That’s a bonus!

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Ian Garry has been making headlines during fight week.

No surprise there.

He takes on Geoff Neal at welterweight and I think this is a really tricky fight for the Irishman.

Geoff Neal is no joke and no easy fight for ANYBODY.

He gave Shavkhat Rakhmonov a lot to think about and I don’t think anyone would consider Garry to be on the level of Rakhmonov…just yet.

Garry is also coming off an illness that kept him out of his previous fight and it remains to be seen how much of an impact that has had but I actually think that will benefit him.

The way he loses this fight is by trading with Neal.

He has been dropped by lesser punchers so trading here would be stupid but that fear, the doubt around how the illness has impacted him will keep him sharp.

I expect him to use his natural physical advantages here and pick Neal apart from the outside on the way to a decision victory.

However, if he gets this wrong, if he gets over confident…he could go asleep.

Official Pick: Ian Garry to win by decision.

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My strongest fancy on the card is Merab Dvalishvili to beat Henry Cejudo.

Merab has made good progress and his well documented cardio levels will give him a big advantage here.

Cejudo is a legend but he looked a yard slower on his return against Sterling and that is not good against someone like Merab.

This will descend to a wrestling match and although Cejudo can match in that department, I doubt he has the same freshness or cardio as Merab.

I expect this to be quite dominant for the Georgian over three rounds.

Official Pick: Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision.

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The rest of the card is really good but one fight that stood out to me when researching was Josh Quinlan vs Danny Barlow.

Both men are early in their careers but it was the striking of Barlow that really caught my eye.

He has got genuine power that will excite fans and although he has major flaws in his ground game, the power he possess will get him out of jail so many times.

Quinlan is a decent fighter but I just don’t know if his chin will stand up to the challenge this weekend.

If he has done his research, he can put Barlow on his back but is he experienced enough to do that?

Either way, this is an exciting little matchup and I will take a punt on Danny Barlow.

Official Pick: Danny Barlow to win.

FIGHT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

The fight that sticks out for me is Hernandez vs Kopylov at middleweight.

‘Fluffy’ Hernandez is on a bit of tear at the moment and finds himself ranked at middleweight but this is by far his toughest rest.

Kopylov has been so impressive in his last four fights, finishing them all by knockout and he just looks like a fighter that is constantly evolving.

I think these two will both go on to be a huge part of this division so credit to both of them for taking the fight and I think it has bonus written all over it.

I am surprised Kopylov is the underdog, though.

I can’t stress how impressed I have been by him and that’s not to take anything away from Hernandez but I just think the Russian has elite striking, I don’t see how Hernandez can nullify that.

Official Pick: Roman Kopylov to win.

Thanks again for all the support, it is truly appreciated.

For those that continue to upgrade to ‘paid’ to support this newsletter, I can’t thank you enough.

On this week’s Early Picks Post, I dropped a few bonus picks for you to enjoy!

I hope you all enjoy the fights!

Speak next week…