Friday's Final Word - #3
THE GOAT IS BACK.
Evening all,
Apologies for the delay in getting this Newsletter out but let’s straight to it.
This weeks Final Word is dominated by UFC 285 as it is simply the biggest and best combat sports card of the years so far.
Many of us have waited three years to see Jon Jones return and now just over 24 hours, there is a mix of excitement and apprehension… for me anyway!
The body of work that ‘Bones’ has put together is unrivalled.
From becoming the youngest ever UFC champion, to dominating every light heavyweight contender that came his way, the ‘in cage’ Jones was (and is) a phenomenon.
But it’s not all been brilliant.
A lot of his actions outside the Octagon have been embarrassing.
Drug issues, melt downs and being arrested in front of a crowd in Las Vegas on the night of his hall of fame induction.
Following Jon Jones has been anything but straight forward.
But it’s this flawed character that, in my opinion, we all fell in love with.
With no disrespect to Ciryl Gane, we are here to see Jones.
We are here to watch the ‘bad man trying to be a good guy’ as he describes himself.
But…
MMA is not a romantic support.
It doesn’t care about fans and their nostalgic love for Jon Jones.
The Other Guy
Believe it or not, despite me consistently banging on about Jones. There is another man in this fight.
And he’s dangerous!
Ciryl Gane is a phenomenon in his own right.
This is a man who only started MMA in 2018, he was a shop worker who just enjoyed Basketball and Kick-Boxing with his friends.
5 years ago he decided to try and MMA and here he is at the top of the heavyweight division and 25 minutes away from becoming THE BADDEST MAN ON THE PLANET.
He has been brilliant in the UFC apart from the fight with Francis Ngannou where he lost via decision.
It’s that performance that is leading to people writing him off in this contest.
Jones is a better wrestler than Ngannou that is a fact and if he decides to adopt a wrestling heavy approach, he has a clear path to victory over Gane but I don’t think the Frenchman’s wrestling is as bad as people make out.
I don’t think wrestling lost him that fight.
It was a lack of experience.
He had never met real resistance until that point.
In my opinion, rather than writing him off, I am excited to see growth.
I think the version of Ciryl Gane we see on Saturday will be the best yet.
If it is, he can beat this version of Jon Jones.
I am convinced of that.
This version of Jones…
When you take all emotion out of it, it’s very hard to predict Jon Jones to dominate the heavyweight division in the way he did the light heavyweight division.
The facts are his ‘peak’ was the best part of a decade ago.
It’s been three years since we have seen ‘Bones’ at all but it’s been the best part of five years since we seen the real Jon Jones.
Most people are conveniently forgetting his last three fights before the break were ugly.
He looked old, unmotivated and lacked the imagination that made him so brilliant.
He ultimately won all three of thos fights by decision but they were anything but convincing.
Is that because he was unmotivated?
Or was it because he just isn’t the monster who won a UFC title at 23 years old.
Ultimately, we won’t know until we watch him this weekend but I repeat what I said earlier, MMA is a non emotional sport.
Do I want to see the greatest version of Jon Jones we have ever seen this weekend?
Yes.
Do I think he is still that guy?
Unfortunately, no.
Prediction
The odds are actually closer than I expected.
Jones 8/13
Gane 6/4
I agree with Jones being the favourite, he’s earned that status and I am not writing him off but I couldn’t allow him to carry my money based on all evidence we have in the last five years.
The man with the momentum is Ciryl Gane.
Yes, he lost to Ngannou but he also bounced back in Paris with a very impressive knockout over Tai Tuivasa.
I expect this to play out on the feet early and think Jones will be surprised how good Gane is in that department.
Jones will eventually revert to what he knows best and try to turn this into a wrestling match to assert his dominance and it’s at that point Gane has to prove how much he has improved since losing to Ngannou.
This is a clash of two absolute monsters but they both have questions to answer.
Is Jones still the fighter he was?
Has Ciryl Gane improved since losing to Ngannou?
We won’t know until Saturday but I honestly can’t wait to find out.
As for a final prediction, I wont part with any money in this and I have to put on record, I love Jon Jones, nobody would be happier to see him win but I have to say it how I see it and if I was pushed to call a winner, I would side with the natural heavyweight with momentum and that is Ciryl Gane.
The Support Cast
The prelim card is absolutely ridiculous.
In the co-main, I expect Valentina Shevchenko to bounce back after a slightly disappointing performance last time out against Taila Santos.
There is a theory that Shevchenko is on the decline but I don’t subscribe to that.
I think she will prove a point this weekend and I expect her to stop Alexa Grasso who is a solid striker but I don’t think she has the defensive weapons to deal with Valentina.
‘The Nomad’ Shavkat Rakhmonov is back as well against solid campaigner Geoff Neal.
Neal missed weight heavily at the weigh in and I think that compounds an awful situation for him even further.
Neal is a solid fighter but I give him very little chance in this fight before failing weight and now I think it’s borderline impossible.
Rakhmonov has finished every single MMA fight he has had and I expect him to register another stoppage here.
The amazing fights keep on coming and the lightweight fight between Mateusz Gamrot and Jalin Turner is my prediction for a bonus.
Gamrot has a lot of hype.
Really knowledgeable people throughout MMA are predicting him to become a future UFC champion but the guy in the opposite corner is an underdog by nature.
Nobody has ever really given Jalin Turner a second thought.
At 27, he is a young man in the game and he has suffered losses early in his career including his UFC debut.
But look at his last five fights.
Five fights, five finishes. All against decent opposition.
I used the word momentum earlier in the Newsletter and when you look at Turner, he personifies that.
Gamrot is looking to bounce back from a dissapointing loss to Beneil Dariush but I think this fight is far trickier than people are giving it credit.
To round off the main card, yet another reason to stay up all night!
Future middleweight title challenger Bo Nickal will make his debut and you want to say you watched it live. Believe me.
He takes on Jamie Pickett and with such an advantage in the wrestling department, I think he will rag doll Pickett from the opening bell.
Very similar to what Chimaev did to Li Jiangling a year or so ago.
Bo Nickal finish. Round 1.
Fights to keep an eye on.
Two fights to keep an eye on this week.
Firstly, former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt returns to bantamweight after a short stay at flyweight.
Cody has lost five of his last six but I am convinced he can still bounce back.
At 31, he still has time and I am hoping this is the start of his revival.
Trevin Jones stands across the Octagon and he is a solid enough fighter but Garbrandt is better in every department.
The reason I make this a fight to watch is because Cody can always be knocked out. He is excitement no matter which way it goes.
I expect him to win but don’t miss this fight.
The next fight to keep an eye on is Ian Garry vs Kenan Song.
Garry is spearheading the next generation of Irish MMA stars and although he hasn’t always set the world alight in his short UFC career, I think this might be the moment he breaks out.
Kenan Song is a tough, tough man but he is very hittable and that is danger when you are fighting a sharp shooter like Garry.
I expect Garry to win and win in style. Early.
Boxing
Boxing truly takes a back seat this weekend but we do have two decent fights to cover.
One of those is Lewis Ritson vs Ohara Davies in Newcastle.
A couple of years ago, this was a potential PPV fight for Eddie Hearn on Sky Sports but both Davies and Ritson have struggled to live up to the inital hype.
Once billed ‘The Geordie Golovkin’, Ritson was a scary power puncher at one point but that power seems to have faded in recent years.
Davies is a strange character but he is talented and awkward to work out. He has only lost to Jack Catterall and Josh Taylor and it is fair to say Ritson isn’t at their level.
Unfortunately, these two men are no longer relevant to the major promoters but I do think this is a good fight.
I think there is a clear blueprint to beat Ritson now and I expect Ohara Davies to get it done inside the distance.
Elsewhere, there is a decent featherweight fight between Mark Magsayo and Brandon Figueora for the interim WBC featherweight title. These are very well matched but I do side with Figueroa.
He may need to weather a bit of a storm because Magsayo is relentless but I just think he is the classier fighter in there.
I expect this to go long but it’ll be exciting throughout.
Brandon Figueora by decision is how I see it.
Picks
Brandon Figueora to win by decision.
Rakhmonov vs Neal under 1.5 rounds
Garry vs Kenan under 1.5 rounds
Ohara Davies to win by KO/TKO
Bo Nickal to win in Round 1.
OVER & OUT!
Well, that ends a mammoth newsletter so thank you for sticking with it!
The feedback continues to be amazing so thank you also for that.
Catch you again on Monday!