Friday's Final Word - #30
UFC returns to Mexico & Edgar Berlanga is back..
Evening all,
A very successful weekend for us last weekend with 5/6 picks landing and also the bonus pick landing from The Early Picks newsletter.
We had been unlucky with picks for a few weeks so it was enjoyed.
It was great to see so many positive messages, too.
This weekend is slightly quieter but we still have some decent action to stuck into across both in the UFC and also the return of Edgar Berlanga.
Let’s get into it…
UFC RETURNS TO MEXICO.
The UFC is finally getting out of the Apex this year and this return to Mexico is well overdue.
The headline fight between Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval is a high stakes flyweight matchup with the winner putting themselves in line for another crack at the champion.
Both men have fought champion Pantoja but the flyweight division is so volatile that they know a big win, of any sort, will put them right back in the conversation for a title shot.
They have met before, with Royval suffering an injury at the end of the first round and they have both fell short against the champion since.
This is a fight that makes perfect sense for both men and there is a sense of unfinished business because the first fight was heating up and would have been a highly competitive fight.
Both men are very exciting and rarely in bad fights and as always with the flyweights, they will be operating in fifth gear from the opening bell.
Stylistically, it’s Moreno who has the better skillset but Royval proved in his fight with Pantoja that he can cause a lot of problems, especially in the striking department.
The biggest difference here could be the experience of Brandon Moreno.
He has had over 15 fights in the UFC now and he has seen it all.
By his own admission, he has lost fights he should have won but he is clever enough to recognise that and I feel he is maturing into a very dangerous fighter.
I have no doubt this will be a very exciting fight but I can’t see past the experience of Brandon Moreno.
Royval will be an integral part of this division for the next few years but I think there is a slight jump in class between him and the elite of the division.
The odds don’t appeal here but I expect a Moreno victory.
The co-main event between Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez has captured the imagination and Rodriguez will get a very warm welcome from his home crowd.
We have seen this fight before, it lasted less than a round back in 2022 when Ortega suffered a fight ending injury.
Since that fight, Rodriguez has gone 1-1 beating Josh Emmett and then losing by stoppage to former champ Alexander Volkanovski.
Ortega, on the other hand, has spent the last two years recovering and it remains to be seen how much of an impact that inactivity has had.
Yair Rodriguez may have lost to Volk but before that, he looked brilliant and in those four minutes we seen in the first Ortega fight, it was him leading the dance.
The biggest doubt around Brian Ortega is the inactivity. He has three fights in four years and this sport moves so fast that he is in danger of wasting his best years.
Obviously, he has exceptional ju-jitsu but his stand-up game isn’t at the same level as the likes of Rodriguez and how long can he trade on just being tough?
That’s the one thing you can’t doubt about Brian Ortega.
He is cut from a different cloth and will wear damage on his face if he needs too but I just don’t see how that stands up against a striker like Rodriguez.
In any fight, Brian Ortega is dangerous because he can pull a submission from nowhere but over five rounds you have to favour Yair Rodriguez.
I expect this to be an all out war but Rodriguez too have too much in the stand-up department.
Official Pick: Yair Rodriguez ITD.
THE REST OF THE CARD.
As expected, the card is stacked with Mexican fighters and the one that sticks out is Manuel Torres who is taking on Scotland’s Chris Duncan.
Both men are undefeated in the UFC but it’s Torres who has really caught the eye and he looks like he can really make a run at lightweight and his knockout of Motta was a real moment of class.
Duncan has been good as well but he has taken some big shots on his way to victory and if he does that against a striker like Torres, he will pay the ultimate price.
I think this has bonus all over it and there is no way it goes the distance.
The ‘BIG’ name on the card is Raul Rosas Jr who has attracted a lot of hype since joining the UFC.
He is still just 19 which is astonishing and is 2-1 in the UFC and this is another decent step-up against Ricky Turcios.
It’s hard to know the ceiling for a fighter like Rosas Jr because he is so young but he has shown glimpses of real talent and during fight week has been telling us how he is working constantly to plug the gaps in his game.
This is a very close fight but some quality matchmaking from the UFC.
Another fight that catches the eye is Fares Ziam vs Claudio Puelles.
Ziam isn’t the most exciting fighter in the world but he is putting together a decent run and his win over Jai Herbert is a decent piece of form.
Puelles was really disappointing against Dan Hooker but outside of that, he has looked dangerous and he will be keen to put that defeat behind him.
Ziam is technically sound and he will need to be this weekend as he is at a disadvantage if this fight hits the mat at any point.
I don’t expect him to take too many chances here but another clean decision victory should keep his momentum going.
Official Pick: Fares Ziam by decision.
A FIGHT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
The fight that has got my attention on this card is Daniel Zellhuber and Francisco Prado at lightweight.
The roof is going to come off when Zellhuber ring walks and he is riding a two fight win streak after suffering defeat on his UFC debut.
This is a massive opportunity for him in front of his home crowd but he has been matched against a fighter I have been really impressed by.
Hailing from Argentina, Francisco Prado is 1-1 in the UFC but the defeat came on his debut when he took the fight at late notice.
After that, he stopped Ottman Azaitar inside a round which is a solid piece of form.
After watching that, I dug back into his career outside the UFC and it is very impressive viewing.
He is a finisher by trade and I think he is someone who can make a massive impact in the UFC given time.
I was shocked to see him as an underdog this weekend and although I expect this to be very competitive, I think Prado comes out on top.
Official Pick: Francisco Prado to win.
The rest of the card is made up of largely Mexican prospects but seeing a card with unknowns is never a bad thing in the UFC. I fully expect the birth of multiple stars this weekend.
BERLANGA RETURNS.
In the world of boxing, Edgar Berlanga returns as he takes on Ireland’s Padraig McCrory in Orlando.
Berlanga, who won his first 16 fights in the first round, has struggled to live up to his knockout artist reputation in recent years and finds himself looking for his first knockout in five fights this weekend.
Naturally, as fighters progress in boxing they reach a level where they can no longer just walk through people but it does seem strange that Berlanga can barely hurt fighters now after looking so destructive early on.
In his last fight against Jason Quigley, he dropped him four times but just never looked like closing the show.
To me, it’s no a power issue with Berlanga, it’s a finishing issue.
He has reached a level where fighters know how to survive and he just can’t work that puzzle out.
He rushes everything when he has fighters going and he is paying that price now.
Through his own desperation, he has been dropped by fighters who are nowhere near as good as him and even had a moment of madness by biting Alexis Angulo in 2022 and subsequently served a six month ban.
Obviously Berlanga has a lot to learn and talk of him being a future Canelo opponent is crazy in my opinion but this looks a good opportunity for him this weekend.
Padraig McCrory is a solid enough fighter and at 35, he is never going to get a push from a promoter so an opportunity like this is exactly what he has been looking for.
He hits hard enough to get respect and has won minor titles up at light heavyweight but he has got everything against him this weekend and can he handle that?
This is probably the only chance he will get to catapult his career into the mainstream so I expect the Irishman to leave it all on the line this weekend but that could leave openings for Berlanga.
I couldn’t trust him with my money on recent form but I think this is a good opportunity for him to get that elusive 17th knockout.
On the undercard, future superstar Andy Cruz has his third professional fight and although there is no prediction, I couldn’t let this newsletter go out without giving him a mention.
I am so excited to see where Andy Cruz goes as a professional and he is already competing in ten rounders which shows you how high Eddie Hearn is on him.
There will be plenty of time to take a bet on Andy Cruz but this weekend just sit and enjoy watching a multi-weight world champion in waiting.
Thanks again for all the support and for those of you that support The Early Picks post, it is greatly appreciated and not only do you get access to the picks early, you also get the bonus acca which landed last week…
If you are getting involved with the picks this weekend, please gamble responsibly.
I will catch you all next weekend!