Friday's Final Word - #31
Worlds Collide in Saudi Arabia | Picks & Predictions for Joshua vs Ngannou | PART ONE.
Evening all,
This is the biggest week in combats sport so far this year with massive shows in both Boxing & MMA and as always, we have got it all covered!
But things will be slightly different…
Due to how big the events are, we will be releasing TWO separate newsletters.
This will be dedicated to Joshua vs Ngannou and we will release a newsletter tomorrow morning dedicated purely to UFC 299.
Numbers have been flying up in recent weeks so welcome to anyone that is new and for all the old timers, I hope you have been enjoying the winning picks in recent weeks.
This newsletter on a Friday is (and always will be) free but if you want access to the picks on a Thursday, you can get involved with the paid side of The Combat Club by using the link below.
It also helps me to keep growing this newsletter!
Let’s get into it…
WORLDS COLLIDE IN SAUDI.
After losing a controversial decision to Tyson Fury last year, Francis Ngannou is now arguably the biggest draw in boxing despite having a record of 0-1.
Funny old game…
But after that performance, it was obvious Eddie Hearn would be on the phone to try and secure AJ the opportunity to fight Ngannou, earn a stupid amount of money and hopefully (in their eyes) do a better job on the former UFC champion and build a narrative to fight the winner of Fury vs Usyk.
As a fight, it’s one that I expect Joshua to come through on paper but if Ngannou has proven anything, it’s that he cant be counted out of any fight.
His performance against Fury was sensational. I had him winning the fight, especially with the knockdown but it weren’t just a lucky performance and Fury didn’t under perform.
It was the result of Francis applying himself to the sport of boxing and somehow building himself into a world class boxer in the space of twelve months.
I don’t think people give the story enough credit, what he achieved was ridiculous and nobody, despite all the post fight Twitter experts, saw it coming.
But is that element of surprise gone now?
Was that his biggest strength?
That’s the biggest question for me.
No matter what Fury and his team said, they underestimated Ngannou.
They, like us all, expected him to fold.
There is no way AJ makes the same mistake this weekend.
He would get beat if he did.
I think Joshua and his trainer Ben Davison will have prepared for this like a world title fight and with that level of focus, I expect Joshua to do a good job on Ngannou.
The fight being over ten rounds also plays into the hands of the former two-time champion.
He does struggle with his gas tank sometimes and knowing mentally that this is only ten rounds, that will put him in a good place.
Stylistically, Joshua is going to have advantages that’s obvious.
Ngannou has always shown a great chin and has obvious power so AJ won’t stand and trade with him because that is the only way he loses this fight, in my opinion.
I expect a clean, professional performance from Joshua and if he does keep disciplined, I think he can find openings to finish this fight in the second half.
Against Fury, Ngannou built up momentum early which meant he reserved a lot of energy, I expect Joshua to try and get Ngannou to chase the fight.
But because with desperation comes opportunity.
This is not a fight I will bet due to the odds but I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Joshua in some multiples or taking Joshua by KO/TKO and for what it’s worth, I think it comes in the second half of the contest.
STACKED UNDERCARD.
It’s not often we get to celebrate an undercard in boxing but I am really excited about the support cast here.
In particular, I am looking forward to seeing Nick Ball take on Rey Vargas.
I have covered Nick’s career since he was fighting in Grand Central Hall in Liverpool and I remember seeing him first against Joe Ducker and being convinced he would reach this level.
Since breaking into the ‘big leagues’ he has been absolutely faultless and this is the level he belongs at.
Make no mistake, Rey Vargas is the biggest test of his career.
He is a solid overall guy who has never been stopped the only negative is his inactivity.
Since 2019, he has averaged just one fight a year and that will be a worry for anyone in the Vargas corner.
He will hold huge physical advantages and a big experience edge but at 33, with 37 pro bouts under his belt and no ring activity, that’s hard to overcome especially with someone as talented as Nick Ball in front of you.
Nobody in this featherweight division will match Nick when it comes to conditioning and gas tank.
He is a freak in that department.
He stands up in between rounds which some people don’t like but its testament to his conditioning.
Nick is the ultimate professional and I think that pace he sets, will really trouble Vargas.
If Nick Ball managed to stop Vargas, it would be a huge statement but I lean towards a points win.
I expect this to be quite close early, but Nick pull away in the second half.
I truly believe he is a special talent and he will announce that to the world this weekend.
Official Pick: Nick Ball to win by decision.
The other fight that catches my eye is Joseph Parker vs Zhilei Zhang.
Both men are coming into this week off career best performances but it’s Joseph Parker I am leaning towards in this fight.
Obviously, they have a common opponent in Joe Joyce and Zhang obliterated him while Parker lost by knockout but we all know boxing maths doesn’t always work out.
Parker is a solid heavyweight who, in my opinion, has just been stuck between styles.
Against Wilder last time, he finally put it all together and a repeat of that performance here would see him come away the victory.
Zhang, although he knocked out Joyce, I just haven’t been convinced by.
I could just be wrong here and he could be a world class heavyweight but I can’t claim to support something I don’t see.
He can obviously punch but outside of that, there are holes that Parker can exploit.
He may need to be patient and if he walks into that left hand of Zhang he could end up seeing stars but with the confidence of the Wilder win, I expect him to pull it off as an underdog here.
The one worry would be the size difference. There was 44lbs between them at the weigh-in which is too big to ignore but I still like Parker’s chances.
Official Pick: Joseph Parker to win.
The pick of the rest for me is Israil Madrimov vs Magomed Kurbanov for the vacant WBA super welterweight belt.
I think Madrimov is a strong favourite here and I think he can stop Kurbanov.
Kurbanov has been kept in Russia and won some controversial decisions, including one over our own Liam Smith.
He steps into neutral territory this time and I think he will fall short.
Madrimov is a decent fighter who hits harder than his record suggests. We have seen Kurbanov hit and hurt by lesser punchers.
I think this will be a good fight but expect Madrimov to win in good style.
Official Pick: Israil Madrimov to win by KO/TKO.
The pick of the earlier undercard is Mark Chamberlain vs Gavin Gwynne.
Chamberlain has been making headlines on Frank Warren undercards but this is a big step-up.
Gwynne is a solid domestic fighter with some good wins under his belt and he is massive for the weight so he will ask questions of Mark Chamberlain here.
Good fight to kick off the night and one not to be missed.
Saudi are making a big splash in the world of sport but this feels like their biggest moment yet.
Enjoy all the action and the newsletter will be back tomorrow with a special edition for UFC 299!
If you want to access the UFC picks early, you can do so with the link below.
Enjoy the fights!
Can’t wait to see nick ball myself tonight, more so than Joshua and ngannou