Friday's Final Word - #34
UFC 314 Preview: Can Volk roll back the clock & is it coming out time for Paddy The Baddy?
Evening all,
It’s been a while but as promised, we are back just in time for the strongest UFC card of the year!
The UFC has had some criticism this year for perceived lack of quality and while it is true, the same can’t be said for this card.
This has got 50/50 fights from top to bottom and felt like the perfect opportunity to come back!
MAIN EVENT.
Tale of the tape
Alexander Volkanovski (26-4)
Diego Lopes (26-6)
This is a classic matchup of former champion vs prospect and it all comes down to what Volkanovski has left in the tank. At 36, his spot in the hall of fame is already secure but his place at the top of this featherweight division is under serious threat.
At lightweight and below, no male fighter over the age of 35 has ever won a title fight which is the damning reality of what the former champion faces this weekend. If anyone can overcome a stat like that, he’s the man but with two knockout losses in his last two fights, his back is firmly against the wall.
Losing to Makhachev and Topuria is nothing to be ashamed of but knockouts leave a mark, history tells us that.
Stylistically, Volkanovski doesn’t have many holes in his game and Lopes has shown he has ability in every department in his short UFC tenure.
The truth is this fight won’t come down to styles. The main metric to focus on is age.
Volkanovski is coming down the mountain while his opponent this weekend, Diego Lopes is on his way up. Riding a five fight win streak, the 30-year-old Brazilian is full of confidence and poses a big threat knockout threat himself, especially early in fights.
He was a punch away from stopping Brian Ortega last time out before the veteran made adjustments but that has given Lopes perfect preparation for a fight of this magnitude, and it feels like we could witness the birth of a new star at featherweight in Miami.
PREDICTION.
Diego Lopes to win.
Youth, ability and confidence. Father Time is undefeated and although Volk is a legend, he may just be running into the younger, fresher man here.
CO-MAIN EVENT.
Tale of the Tape
Michael Chandler (23-9)
Paddy Pimblett (22-3)
Chandler described this as ‘The peoples main event' during Thursday’s press conference and he isn’t far wrong. Both fighters split opinion but they both bring highly entertaining styles to the octagon and this is a fight that could easily have a bonus attached when all is said and done.
Much like the main event, this involves two fighters and opposite ends of their respective careers. At 38, Chandler doesn’t have much time left and another loss would end any remaining hopes of a title shot but for Pimblett, this is is his first opportunity to announce himself as a genuine lightweight contender.
Chandler is (2-4) since entering the UFC and a casual fan would perhaps look down on a record like that but he is mixing it at the very highest level. To take on the likes Charles Oliveira (x2), Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje and Dan Hooker in back-to-back fights is no joke and he deserves respect.
Paddy Pimblett is (6-0) since signing for the UFC but he has been operating at a much lower level than Chandler. His first four wins came as a heavy odds on favourite but his most recent win against Bobby Green in July is a strong bit of form and he arrives in Miami with confidence knowing a win will have him knocking on the door of the lightweight top 5.
Chandler has dynamite in both hands. Pimblett has an high-level kicking and grappling game.
Pimblett can get hit clean. Chandler can be vulnerable when it hits the mat.
Can you see why this could win a bonus!?
PREDICTION.
Paddy Pimblett to win.
At the risk of repeating myself, this is a question of who has more in the tank. Paddy is getting better all the time, Chandler may be feeling the effects of a long career. This is the perfect opportunity for Paddy to make a statement but he will need to respect the power of Michael Chandler.
PRELIM WATCH.
This card is stacked with intriguing fights but the one that stands out is former featherweight title challenger Yair Rodriguez vs UFC newcomer Patricio Pitbull.
Rodriguez has been a mainstay in this featherweight division for a long time and although he fell short at title level (was beaten by Volkanovski in 2023) and was then beaten on his return by perennial contender Brian Ortega, he has always found a way to keep himself relevant.
The 32-year-old Mexican is a highly dangerous striker capable of finishing anyone in the division on his day and he will relish the opportunity to introduce Patricio Pitbull to the UFC.
If you have been an MMA fan for a while, Patricio Pitbull will need no introduction. As a multiple time world champion in other organisations, he has threatened to make the jump to the UFC in the past but the time has finally arrived. The only question is as he left it too late?
This is a brilliant clash of styles but the aggressive nature of Pitbull may play into the hands of Rodriguez, who is at his best when counter striking.
Yair Rodriguez needs to bounce back but this looks a good opportunity on paper. Pitbull is 37 and untested at the highest level and that points to Yair Rodriguez winning this fight, maybe inside the distance.
Jean Silva vs Bryce Mitchell is another fight that has captured the imagination but for maybe the wrong reasons.
Bryce Mitchell is a divisive character (to put it lightly) but that is down to his antics outside of competition. If you cancel out all that noise and put aside any thoughts about him personally, he is a dangerous fighter that has continuously proven himself to be one of the best featherweights in the world.
Despite losses to the likes of Ilia Topuria and Josh Emmett, he has racked up some solid wins over contenders like Edson Barboza and Andre Fili and his high-level wrestling is a problem for anybody in this division. He has far more UFC experience than Silva and as a sizeable underdog this weekend, he could be being overlooked.
Fighting out of perhaps the hottest gym in all over MMA, The Fighting Nerds, Jean Silva has quickly solidified himself as one of the brightest prospects in the UFC after four highly impressive wins (all by stoppage).
However, this is a big step-up in competition. His path to victory is clear, keep this fight standing and out strike Mitchell but that is easier said than done and his grappling defence will undoubtedly be tested in Miami.
I have no issue with Silva being the favourite. His striking is elite and he clearly has power and if truth be told, I would love him to knock Bryce Mitchell out but when judging the fight fairly, it is clear that Bryce Mitchell is being overlooked.
No official prediction here but this is closer than the bookies believe.
FIGHT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
This ‘award’ very nearly went to Nikita Krylov vs Dominic Reyes so keep an eye on that fight but the featherweight clash between Sean Woodson vs Dan Ige is the one that came out on top.
Ige is highly respected by UFC bosses and fans, he is a fighter that will take on any challenge and as he proved by taking the Diego Lopes fight on literally a few hours notice, he isn’t afraid of any challenge.
He is 10-8 in the UFC but don’t let that fool you, Dan Ige is a class operator but unfortunately for him, he is running into another class operator here.
At 6’2, Sean Woodson is a freak at featherweight and his striking skillset is a joy to behold. As a former amateur boxer, he has all the correct fundamentals but he has transitioned to MMA seamlessly and with every passing fight looks like someone who could break into the world top #10 before long.
This is a great fight that should play out on the feet. Both men will fancy the job and that should make for fascinating viewing.
OFFICIAL PICKS.
Singles:
Diego Lopes to win (11/10)
Paddy Pimblett to win (8/5)
Long Shot Picks:
Yair Rodriguez by KO/TKO (3/1)
Parlay:
Lopes/Pimblett/Rodriguez/Woodson pays around 7/1.
It’s great to be back and thank you all for your patience while we were working some things out.
We will be back again next Friday.
In the meantime, let me know your thoughts/predictions in the comments below.
Speak soon!
Nice one Jord for coming back, didnt half miss these before big fight weekends.
Made up the Combat Club is back and what a weekend for it. Great read Jord. I’ve you had to pick the way Paddy wins this weekend what method would you go for? Personally i’m inbetween submission or points as its his first big test and we know how tough Chandler is.