Fridays Final Word - #35
Grudge Night Incoming: Eubank, Benn & UFC Kansas City Carnage.
Evening all,
It’s a big weekend in the world of combat sport with a double-dose of violence to keep us entertained!
The one stealing the headlines is the grudge match years in the making: Chris Eubank Jr vs Conor Benn. Whether you agree with the fight or not, this fight is personal and littered with controversy and has added another layer today with Chris Eubank Jr missing weight and being slapped with a huge £375,000 fine!
Away from the noise in London, the UFC are serving up a good card in Kansas City as Ian Machado Garry takes yet another late notice assignment against arguably the most dangerous puncher in the division, Carlos Prates.
These are the weeks we saviour as combat sports fans and there is plenty to dissect…
CHRIS EUBANK JR VS CONOR BENN.
Tale of the tape
Chris Eubank Jr (34-3 25KO)
Conor Benn (23-0 14KO)
35 years after their fathers’ iconic clashes, we will finally see this rivalry reignited this weekend in London.
Originally scheduled for 2022, the fight fell off due to a failed drug test(s) from Conor Benn and although he faced no punishment, it will remain a stain on his name name forever.
However, it has actually made this fight a bigger deal which feels wrong.
The fact a fight can grow in popularity despite a failed drug test probably reveals a bigger issue around the sport of boxing but this has caught the imagination of the ‘casual’ fan and this has now become one of the biggest events in recent history.
Now here comes my issue…
The word thrown around most this week is…EVENT.
Not fight.
Event.
That is because according to every measurable metric we have, the fight is a mismatch. It makes no sense.
These two men are linked by their surname only.
One is a career middleweight/super middleweight and one is barely a welterweight.
No matter how much Eddie Hearn tries to convince us that this is a great fight or that Conor Benn is suddenly this massive puncher capable of dominating two weight classes above his natural home, the performances he has put in since returning from his “ban'“ paint a very different picture.
This fight is happening because of nostalgia. To try and re-create the amazing scenes their fathers’ gave us 35 years ago.
But they can’t. They aren’t as good.
PREDICTION.
Chris Eubank Jr is 35 now and clearly on his way down the mountain and the fact he missed weight today and has to adhere by a strict 10lb rehydration clause is a huge negative for him, but he has operated at the higher level, been in the bigger fights and put in the better performances.
The career hasn’t been perfect but Eubank Jr has only lost to genuine world class fighters. George Groves, Billy Joe Saunders & Liam Smith, all men that have operated at the very top of the sport.
The manner in which he lost the first fight with Liam Smith will worry him. Being stopped for the first time is daunting for any fighter but he got his revenge in the rematch and let’s not discredit Liam Smith, he is a far classier operator than what Eubank Jr will face this weekend.
Eubank Jr is the more experienced fighter, the bigger fighter, the harder punch and the better fighter (despite Eddie Hearn trying to convince the world otherwise) and he should have far too much class this weekend.
His biggest problem may be the judges’ and the scales.
This is not his ‘home’ show and that 10lb rehydration limit forced on him is something that has to be taken into consideration.
Conor Benn arrives in London with so much to prove but armed with a very clever promoter.
This is a fighter that is still yet to explain or justify his failed drugs test. Despite claiming innocence.
Yet here he is, being paid millions, two-weight divisions outside of his natural weight class but according to his promoter, this is the gateway to him becoming one of the biggest stars in the sport.
Let’s look at the facts…
He has 14 fights under his belt and his best opponent is Chris Algieri (he retired immediately after).
He was dropped multiple times at regional level against Cedric Peynaud and in his two fights since the failed drugs test, he has laboured to two decision wins on American undercards.
The one benefit for Benn is that Eubank Jr will be handicapped by the rehydration clause, his 35 year old body will struggle to perform at it’s peak when under such distress but the fact the rehydration clause is in the contract is a conversation for another day.
Eubank Jr is the right favourite and should win but the safe play here looks to be for the fight to go the distance. Eubank Jr is experienced enough to know he can’t get carried away with the atmosphere and he also knows he may be fighting against more than just his gloved up opponent.
Expect a ferocious start from Benn but as this fight begins to settle. Eubank Jr should begin to take over.
But don’t be surprised if the judges have other ideas.
UNDERCARD WATCH.
The main event is contentious but the undercard is brilliant.
Kicking off with former cruiserweight world champion Chris Billam-Smith taking on American Brandon Glanton in a high stakes matchup.
Billam-Smith is nicknamed ‘The Gentleman’ but he is the opposite once the bell goes.
The 34-year-old has tasted life as a world champion but despite losing it to a classier operator in Zurdo Ramirez, he returns here to take on Brandon Glanton in what looks like a step down in competition.
I don’t think there are many big nights left in Billam-Smith, he has a lot of miles on the clock but he can get over the line here on a big platform against a fighter that has lost both times he has stepped up.
The one fight that has gone under the radar is the British title fight between Viddal Riley and Chev Clarke.
Clarke is a former Team GB member who probably left it too late to turn professional but was chasing the Olympic dream, so who can really blame him?
As a professional he has been steady without being too impressive but has a British title on his record and that deserves respect.
He is looking to bounce back from his first career loss and arrives in London with a chance but Viddal Riley is a fighter that continues to impress.
This is a man who could be earning millions (literally) beating up internet personalities but he has dedicated himself to the true sport of boxing and has the ability to make a genuine run in this cruiserweight division.
He has a high boxing IQ and fighting someone like Clarke should bring the best out in him.
This may not bring the fireworks of other fights but Riley could steal the headlines.
Riley decision looks the logical outcome here.
The one fight that is slightly underwhelming is Anthony Yarde vs Lyndon Athur.
These have fought twice before and our 1-1 but the manner in which Yarde won the second fight means it looks slightly predictable.
Yarde is not active enough and it would have been great to see him in a fresher fighter.
Arthur is well schooled but his best days are behind him.
He has got big names like Bivol on his record but it was a laboured performance last time out against Liam Cameron and he has a fair bit to prove this weekend against a man that stopped him inside four rounds last time they met.
FIGHT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
The best fight on the card comes in the middleweight division as former world champion Liam Smith looks to get his career back on track against the up and coming Aaron McKenna.
Smith is on something of a rebuilding mission after his performance against Chris Eubank Jr in their rematch but he entered that fight with a very serious injury and in hindsight, should have pulled out.
People have complained about Smith making excuses but he proved he could compete with Eubank Jr by stopping him in the first fight so the manner in which he fought in the rematch made no sense.
He didn’t become a bad fighter overnight and he isn’t the type of fighter to make excuses.
However, the test in front of him this weekend looks a tricky one.
Aaron McKenna is rising through the ranks at a noticeable rate and has done nothing wrong in his 19 professional fights.
He is a solid puncher and sets a decent pace that will make Liam Smith work from the opening bell.
This is a big step-up for the Irishman, he has fought nowhere near world title level before but everyone has to step up at some point, so why not do it on the biggest stage?
This is a brilliant clash of styles and if boxing gave out fight of the night bonuses, this would be a sure winner.
McKenna will start as the favourite but you would be crazy to write off Liam Smith in a fight like this.
He thrives when the going gets tough and he has been lined up as a ‘step up’ opponent before in his career and always made a mockery of that notion.
Don’t miss this one and don’t miss the opportunity to back Liam Smith as decent underdog.
UFC KANSAS CITY.
From London to the Midwest…
The UFC serves up a brilliant card topped by two of the most exciting welterweights in the world facing off.
Carlos Prates is a proud member of The Fighting Nerds, who are quickly becoming the most feared gym in MMA and he is riding 4 fight win streak in the UFC and has knocked out all of his opponents.
Despite living an…’unorthdox’ lifestyle outside the gym (openly discusses his love for cigarettes and alcohol), he is a phenomenon when the octagon door closes and has quickly struck fear into the majority of this welterweight division.
But not Ian Machado Garry.
The Irishman, who now lives and trains in Brazil, is making a habit of fighting the best guys in the world on late notice and deserves so much respect for that attitude.
He is 8-1 in the UFC now but it’s his defeat that is his most impressive piece of form.
On late notice, he gave the heir apparent Shavkhat Rakhmonov all sorts of problems before losing out narrowly on the judges’ scorecards.
Before that fight, Garry was viewed as a decent striker with a big mouth, but he is so much more than that.
He is a very well-rounded mixed martial artist and he has a real chance of being king of this division one day.
His personality splits opinion but Ian Machado Garry is the real deal and a win over Prates would put him right on the edge of a title shot.
It’s so hard to pick a winner here, they are both brilliant prospects who will go forward no matter what happens but personally, I can’t go against Ian Machado Garry anymore.
PRELIM WATCH.
The main card here is as competitive as anything we have seen from the UFC this year outside of the big PPV events.
In the co-main, Anthony Smith is given a nightmare opponent for his retirement fight. Smith has been an incredible servant to the UFC and has a promising career on the mic after this weekend but this matchup against a surging contender like Zhang Mingyang is a daunting prospect.
Mingyang is unproven but the UFC are desperate to break the Chinese market and he looks like the type of fighter that could really explode in that region. Blessed with frightening power, he has finished his last eleven fights in the first round.
In all likelihood, this will be a painful end for Anthony Smith but if he can get past the first round, he has enough class and experience to spring a big upset here.
Interesting fight.
Elsewhere, there is a high stakes middleweight match-up between Abus Magomedov and Michel Pereira which will be entertaining. Pereira is an experienced fighter with 12 UFC fights under his belt but he has struggled to break the barrier to the top of the division. His record of 9-3 is perfectly respectable but it seems like when he steps up, he falls short.
Magomedov comes into the fight with the most to prove. There is no doubt he is a high class operator but he is 3-2 in the UFC and he needs to find some consistency from somewhere. Granted, his two defeats came against Borallho and Strickland (two world ranked fighters) but we need more for Magomedov and that has to start this weekend.
Another fight worth noting is at featherweight between David Onama and Giga Chikadze. Chikadze is the class act in this fight but he is averaging one fight a year for the last three years and he missed weight for this one.
Has the fire gone out?
If it has, he has got a big problem on his hands this weekend. Onama is unranked but has shown enough in the wins over Gabriel Santos and Gabriel Benitez to suggest he can be a problem in this weight class.
This is a chance of David Onama to become a ranked UFC fighter and it will be one he won’t want to let slip. If he can get a stoppage, it would be a huge statement.
As long time readers will know, finding an underdog is something we love to do at The Combat Club and there may be one on this card in the shape of Nicholas Dalby.
He may now be 40, but recent form shows there is plenty left in the tank for Dalby. The two wins over Gabriel Bonfim and Muslim Salikhov are very strong pieces of form and if truth be told, he was very unlucky to be on the wrong side of a decision against Rinat Fakhretdinov in this last fight.
Randy Brown is a solid fighter, who will have a size advantage but he is nothing that Dalby hasn’t seen before and at the odds, he is worth taking on. If this was priced up closer, it would be a watching brief but having Nicholas Dalby at (9/4) in a fight like this seems wrong.
(SMALL STAKES IF FOLLOWING)
OFFICIAL PICKS.
Singles:
Liam Smith to win (13/10)
Abus Magomedov to win (11/10)
Viddal Riley to win by decision (13/10)
Eubank vs Benn to go the distance - YES (13/8)
Long Shot:
Nicholas Dalby to win (9/4)
Parlay:
Liam Smith/Viddal Riley/Chris Billam-Smith pays around 6/1
Thanks again for your continued support and please remember, if you are following any of the picks, they are for entertainment only, please gamble responsibly.
Speak soon,