Evening All
Firstly, thank you all so much for your patience.
I am struggling with some health things at the minute (don’t worry too much) and the last week or so it was pretty rough but now hopefully, I am on the mend.
While I have been away, the wonderful world of combat sports has not stopped and typically, it’s not all positive!
The debacle between Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk has disappointed me the most.
For those that have listened (or read) my stuff for a while know that I never thought this fight would happen but the manner in which it fell off was pathetic.
The below statement summing it up…
How disrespectful is it to Oleksandr Usyk to suggest ‘nobody know’s who he is’
We all know who he is. The paying public do, too.
In fact, I would argue a large part of the fanbase in this country probably wanted him to win this fight.
Dont forget, this was the fighter who has made a professional career from travelling to people’s back yard and winning.
Americans in America.
Germans in Germany.
Latvians in Latvia.
Russians in Russia.
He has done all this & won every time.
Don’t disrespect us or him by suggesting he is some unknown fighter unworthy of a shot at Tyson Fury.
Just say it how it is.
You never wanted the fight. He is too much of a risk.
WE would respect you more if you did.
Now the positive…
David Benavidez vs Caleb Plant is HERE!
We have a lot of action this weekend but for me, this is the best fight on offer.
This is the type of fight that we should be demanding as boxing fans and fair play to these two men for putting it on.
Two top class super middleweights who aren’t looking to avoid each other and for a little bit of added interest, they DO NOT like each other.
This is a proper 50/50 but I feel like Caleb Plant has proven more.
Even if you just look at his performance in defeat to Canelo. He lost that fight but he fought with credit and I believe he will have grown from that.
His knockout of Dirrell last time out would suggest he has also.
Benavidez looks like he a monster, talks like one as well.
But at 26-0, I still don’t feel like I have watched him in a true test.
I am not suggesting he can’t compete at world level. I am 99% sure he can but we simply don’t know until it happens.
I give him the power advantage over Plant but he will have to work extremely hard to land clean shots and he has had everything his own way in past fights, I think he could ruin his own work through over eagerness.
With all this in mind, I do give Plant a great chance to win at underdog odds but my official prediction is fight to go the distance.
Fight of the weekend.
Closer To Home
We have two decent shows in the UK on both Sky Sports & BT Sport.
In Manchester, WBO cruiserweight champion Lawrence Okolie defends his belt against undefeated but untested New Zealander, David Light.
I have read a lot this week about this being a test or a potential slip up opportunity for Okolie but I don’t read the fight that way.
I think Okolie is better in every department.
Light deserves his shot, his team have manoeuvred him through those WBO rankings quite cleverly but I just don’t see anything he does that will trouble Okolie, if the champion is fit and firing.
The one worry I would have is the promotional shift and the new training team.
I thought Shane McGuigan was the perfect fit for Okolie. I am not convinced Sugar Hill is.
McGuigan improves every fighter he works with and I think he took Okolie to a new level.
The real test of that will be in future fights and while I expect Okolie to be patient, I think his power will ultimately be too much for David Light to handle.
Not a fight I am overly interested in betting on but prediction is Lawrence Okolie to win in rounds 7-12.
Over in Telford, there is one fight that I am interested in.
Andrew Cain vs Ionut Baluta.
Cain is someone with a big reputation in Liverpool and is fighting out of the thriving Everton Red Triangle gym.
His gym mates include the likes of Peter McGrail, Nick Ball and Brad Strand. They are all brilliant prospects pulling each other along. You would pay to watch the sparring in there, wouldn’t you?
This is the first real step up in his professional career, though.
I expect him to win but Baluta deserves respect. If you don’t respect him, he can easily end up giving you a very difficult night at the office.
Ask Michael Conlan.
Baluta is no world beater, he will never be a world champion but he is a well schooled, honest, tough man who backs down from no challenge and for that he deserves respect in this fight.
He has never been stopped and when you consider the level he has fought at, he will be confident he can ask some serious questions of Andrew Cain in Telford.
Ten rounds at European level would be brilliant for the career progression of Andrew Cain and although he has the power to knock anyone out, if Baluta is sharp and in the mood, he can take this one late like he has done with world level contenders like Michael Conlan.
UFC
After the dramatics of UFC 286 last week, we have another brilliant main event this weekend and it’s on a time friendly schedule for us UK fans!
Prelims: 20.00pm
Main Card: 23.00pm
The main event is yet another 50/50 in the brilliant bantamweight division.
Since losing to Jose Aldo in late 2020, ‘Chito’ Vera has gone on a four fight win streak and looks to be reaching his peak now.
His victory over Sean O’Malley is also ageing really well and although people will argue O’Malley got injured in that fight. He only got injured because Vera made him.
‘Chito’ dominated that fight and got the finish fair and square.
Bantamweight is one of the most competitive divisions in the entire UFC but Vera is deservedly sitting at the top table.
His problem this weekend, he is facing another genuine world title contender.
Like Vera, Sandhagen has suffered losses throughout his UFC career but he has always bounced back and at 30 years old, he is getting better all the time.
This is such a high quality matchup and I don’t see a distinct advantage for either fighter in any department.
I have it as a straight 50/50 and that’s why I am shocked at the price of Marlon Vera.
I see this is as a fight that goes long and actually favour Vera to do his best work in the later rounds.
Cory Sandhagen starts quickly, is flashy and can knock anybody out but the longer this goes, the more time Vera will have to slow the pace down and start to dictate with his own striking.
Very similar to how the O’Malley fight played out.
This is unmissable for me but I really fancy Marlon Vera to come out on top at underdog odds.
Another fight that catches my eye is Chidi Njokuani vs Albert Duraev on the prelims.
Njokuani is the favourite but this is another seriously close fight.
I have watched a lot of tape on this fight and there is a really clear path to victory for Duraev if he focuses on his wrestling.
Njokuani has struggled with anyone with a wrestling base and Duraev is high level in that department.
The main danger is that Duraev could easily walk onto a big shot and he has shown in the past that he sometimes abandons his game plan just to have a tear up, which wouldn’t be wise here.
I am hoping he puts his wrestling on show here because if he does, he could easily spring the upset.
Fight To Keep An Eye On.
I have had my eye on this fight between Michael Gomez Jr and Levi Giles since it was announced and it has really sparked into life during fight week.
I have enjoyed the war of words, social media spats etc but it boiled over at today’s weigh in and I think Gomez Jr comes out of it looking like a bit of an idiot.
I favoured Giles before seeing what happened today and this has convinced me even more.
I feel like the occasion may be getting to Gomez Jr more than Giles and it’s those small details that make the difference in a fight as closely matched as this.
There isn’t a great deal of power on show here but it’s very rare you see a bad fight for the English title and this should be no different with Levi Giles edging a close decision to win the English title.
Picks
Caleb Plant vs David Benavidez to go the distance.
Andrew Cain to beat Ionut Baluta by decision (small interest).
Marlon Vera to win.
Albert Duraev to win.
Levi Giles to win by decision.
News
A lot of you have asked me about developing a podcast alongside the newsletter and I will definitely be offering this in the next few months.
However, I will be appearing on the brilliant Punch Perfect Boxing Youtube channel every week starting next week with Jamie Bourne.
Jamie & I did some live streams together last year and we will be looking to release a more in depth podcast show that will be released on the same day every week.
Jamie is brilliant at what he does and the boxing conversation will be something that appeals to everyone who reads this.
There will be a little something for the hardcore MMA fans over there, too!
Please look out for more information about the show being released this week. I am really excited to kick off this project.
Have a great weekend everyone and thanks for the supportive messages this week!