The Final Word - #33
FULL UFC 300 BREAKDOWN.
Morning all,
After a few quiet weeks and a couple of poor cards, UFC 300 is finally here and the newsletter will look a little different this week.
Firstly, the whole focus will be on UFC 300.
Secondly, I have done a small preview for all 13 fights on the card. At the bottom of each preview, I have made a prediction.
For the picks I am most confident on, I have marked it as OFFICIAL PREDICTION.
Also, remember you can access the bonus picks by using the link below.
Let’s do it…
UFC 300.
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Cody Garbrandt.
It’s crazy that a fight this good is kicking off the entire card but I think it will be a bit of a banger to get the crowd going. By now, we all know the limitations of Cody Garbrandt. He is a big puncher, very skilled but can be hurt but I actually like this fight for him.
There have been some rumours that Figueiredo is no longer as dialled in as he once was and although that could be nonsense, you never quite know what you are getting with him these days. He is capable of beating Cody but what version will show up?
At the odds, I like Garbrandt and think this new disciplined version of him could cause problems for a lot of people in this division but you can’t ever trust him 100%.
Whoever wins, I think it comes by finish. Figueiredo can hurt Cody but if he gets reckless, he could walk straight into that big right hand.
Prediction: Fight to NOT go the distance.
Bobby Green vs Jim Miller.
It’s great to see two vets get a place on this card but it’s not like they are a token.
Far from it.
Jim Miller is the only man to appear on UFC 100, 200 and 300 but on current form, you could argue he is in the prime of his career. He is 5-1 in his last six and some of the finishes have been very impressive. Bobby Green is a level above any of his recent wins but you would be dangerous betting against Jim Miller this weekend.
Bobby Green is what he is. An up & down guy but an absolute vet of the game. For every great performance like Grant Dawson, he struggles like he did with Jalin Turner but those young guys are a different proposition to what he is facing here.
With Dana handing out $300,000 bonuses, I would love to see these guys get one. No bet for me but my heart is with Jim Miller!!
Prediction: Jim Miller win.
Jessica Andrade vs Marina Rodriguez.
One of the few fights on the card that hasn’t really caught my attention but it has the potential to surprise. I think Andrade will have a pretty significant power advantage and that will be enough to put Rodriguez on her heels similar to how Amanda Lemos did.
Andrade is 1-3 in her last four so I can understand why Rodriguez will be feeling confident but I don’t see how she can get the respect of Andrade without walking into something huge herself.
Prediction: Jessica Andrade win.
Jalin Turner vs Renato Moicano.
This is my prediction for one of those huge bonuses and I think it will be going the way of Jalin Turner. I am a massive fan of Turner and although he is still rebuilding from that Hooker loss, I honestly believe he has what it takes to reach the top of this division.
My biggest doubt was the weight. He is so big, it’s mind blowing that he makes 155lb but he did look good on the scales and that fills me with confidence. He is a devastating puncher but his all round game is improving and he will need to show those other facets of his game against someone like Moicano.
Moicano is a character and by all accounts has his eye on a future fight with Paddy Pimblett but I just don’t think he will be able to take the shots of Turner. If he can drag it to the mat, he has a chance as he can submit anyone but to do that he is going to have to walk through the fire and I just seen Turner tagging him on the way in and getting the job done.
Prediction: Jalin Turner ITD.
Sodiq Yusuff vs Diego Lopes.
Another absolute banger of a fight.
Lopes has been so impressive since joining the UFC. His debut he pushed Evloev right to the wire and we all know how good he is and since then he has ran through both Pat Sabatini and Gavin Tucker. Neither of those guys are going to be UFC champion but the manner in which Lopes handled them let us know we could be dealing with someone a bit special.
Yusuff also has a big reputation but he is yet to really deliver upon it. The facts are his only two defeats came against Edson Barboza and Arnold Allen so he is clearly very talented but it feels like we are just waiting for him to really announce himself.
What better stage to do it?
It would be a great moment but I am really high on Lopes and I think he gets this done and keeps building that hype.
Prediction: Diego Lopes to win.
Holly Holm vs Kayla Harrison
This fight has got a lot of attention due to how popular Kayla Harrison is and the fact that she is making her long awaited UFC debut. As a multiple time Olympic medallist you are always going to draw eyes but the fact she has been competing in the PFL has built her reputation further and we are all excited to see what she brings, aren’t we?
Being matched with Holly Holm is a shrewd move from the UFC because she is a legend in her own right but are the powers fading at 42?
If Holm catches Harrison an upset could well happen but after what looked like a brutal weight cut, I expect Harrison to nullify Holm and take the path of least resistance to get her UFC career off to a winning start.
Official Prediction: Kayla Harrison to win by decision.
Calvin Kattar vs Aljamain Sterling.
Another really intriguing fight with Sterling making his featherweight debut and it’s a long time overdue, he was huge for bantamweight but this is no easy task.
Kattar sometimes gets overlooked now because he got pieced up by Max Holloway and they now see he has lost his last two but it doesn’t tell the whole story. He beat Josh Emmett but didn’t get the decision and then the defeat to Allen was an injury.
Kattar is a huge puncher and we have seen Aljo hurt by much lesser punchers. Obviously, the former bantamweight champion has very good wrestling and that could be a problem for Kattar but I just don’t see him being as big of an underdog as the bookies have.
It’s a risky fight but the odds are wrong so I am having a small go on Calvin Kattar.
Official Prediction: Calvin Kattar to win.
Jiri Prochazka vs Alexsander Rakic.
This has got FIGHT OF THE NIGHT all over it and when you add the fact these two don’t like each other, this is going to descend into an explosive shootout between two huge punchers.
Rakic, who’s been off for two years, has shown glimpses of being champion material but the big question is how will he perform after such a long lay-off?
Jiri was also been dealing with a long lay-off and was knocked out by Alex Pereira on his return. To me, he looked a step off it in that fight but it could go one of two ways this weekend. Either he needed the return and now he will be more like himself or will the knockout have a domino effect?
We won’t know until the opening bell goes but facing someone like Rakic on the back of being knocked out is a dangerous, dangerous game. I do have worries about the lay-off for Rakic but before it, he looked like a nailed on future champion for me so I am siding with him here but whatever way it goes…don’t blink, this could be over quick.
Official Prediction: Alexsander Rakic to win.
Bo Nickal vs Cody Brundage.
Not much to say on this one really. Bo Nickal wins as quickly as he wants too.
Less than one round.
Do with that what you will.
Charles Oliveira vs Arman Tsarukyan.
Yes, we are living in a world where the most exciting fighter on the planet is not even in the main event but that just shows the strength of this card.
Oliveira is probably the most popular fighter in the UFC and his reign as lightweight champion was one of the most entertaining runs we have ever seen.
He is looking to reclaim that gold but this is a serious test against a fighter that I think will hold the belt at some point. Tsarukyan fought Makhachev on his debut and ran him close which shows how good he is and since then he has been faultless and is on a rampage to get revenge over Makhachev.
I couldn’t pick a winner here because you can’t ever rule Oliveira out but with their styles and with so much on the line, I think a finish is coming early.
They both have a narrative with the champion but the only way they force a fight is by making a statement. So I expect both men to be chasing a finish from early in the fight.
Official Prediction: Under 1.5 rounds.
Justin Gaethje vs Max Holloway.
The BMF title will be on the line here and if two fighters ever represented that belt it’s these two.
They have both been round for an eternity but they are still at the top of their respective divisions and now meet in unique circumstances.
Gaethje couldn’t be in better form. Wins over Fiziev and Poirier are solid victories and when you consider Poirier just came out and battered a contender in Benoit St Denis, it only enhances JG’s form.
Similarly for Holloway, outside of former champ Volk, he has dominated at featherweight. He is a possible future opponent for Ilia Topuria but now makes the step up to 155lb for this unique opportunity. He has the size, style and bottle to compete at this weight but stepping up in weight is always risky because if he was a true 155lb fighter, he would be competing there, wouldn’t he?
One thing you can’t take away from Holloway is his toughness. He has never been knocked out in the UFC despite being in the promotion for over a decade and even if he is giving away physical advantages this weekend, he won’t hide.
Ultimately, I think JG is just too big but I expect Holloway to put on a show and hear the final bell.
WHAT A FIGHT.
Official Prediction: Justin Gaethje to win by decision.
Weili Zhang vs Yan Xiaonan.
It will be an amazing moment when these two women enter the octagon this weekend as it’s the first real Chinese super-fight we have seen. Zhang is arguably the best female fighter on the planet and Xiaonan has been so impressive on her UFC run.
When all the dust settles, I think Zhang has the better skills but I expect Xiaonan to make her work and as we have seen, she has genuine knockout power.
I don’t expect Zhang to slip up here but I do expect a competitive fight.
Prediction: Zhang to win.
Jamahal Hill vs Alex Pereira
Here we are…THE MAIN EVENT.
This got a bit of criticism when it was made as people were expecting McGregor et al but it’s an incredible fight against two of the biggest punchers in the entire sport.
Pereira is a combat sports phenom. To do what he has done in the UFC in just seven fights is the stuff of legend but I honestly believe this is his biggest test to date, Adesanya included.
Jamahal Hill is a freak in his own right. He has got crazy power and he is a full blown light heavyweight. He is another fighter coming off a big injury but what we seen before that, he was the best light heavyweight on the planet.
Pereira has been knocked out and hurt at middleweight and if Hill clips him, what is going to happen?
Obviously, if Hill isn’t quite 100% and Pereira clips him…he is probably going to sleep.
That’s what makes this fight so good.
I don’t think it is going very long but I do side with Hill. He is a very underrated technician and I think he will find a home for his right hand and reclaim the belt he never truly lost.
Official Pick: Jamahal Hill to win.
I hope you have enjoyed this new layout of the newsletter, it could become a permanent fixture if it goes down well, so please let me know your thoughts.
As always, there is a bonus bet on the Early Picks post which you can get access too below.
Good luck to anyone following the picks!!
See you next week.